Match Info

GERMANY: 2. BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 24

Date: 12 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Referee: Sather A. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Bundesliga, Sky Sport Bundesliga
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Holstein Kiel		Jahn Regensburg

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	4.75	Watch
	1.71	3.9	4.6	Watch
	1.72	3.95	4.35
	1.72	3.85	4.6
	1.73	4.11	4.65
	1.7	3.75	4.4	Watch
	1.71	3.98	4.55	Watch
	1.73	3.9	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.8)	3.93 ↑ (3.67)	4.56 ↑ (4.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
55.2%

Draw
24.1%

Jahn Regensburg
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.8%

25.5%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

23.6%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Jahn Regensburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Holstein Kiel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jahn Regensburg than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	8.3%	25%

Holstein Kiel - Jahn Regensburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Regensburg will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Holstein Kiel: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 8 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga).

Holstein Kiel has the most likely position - 8 (18.5%), has project points - 48, has currently - 33, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Regensburg has the most likely position - 18 (27.67%), has project points - 33, has currently - 20, has a good chance of relegated (58%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 29, small importance 29, small match rating 29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Holstein Kiel won 3.

Recent matches Holstein Kiel is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Regensburg has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Holstein Kiel is a favorite.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Holstein Kiel won 9 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 24-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Holstein Kiel won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
04.03.23	Sandhausen - Holstein Kiel	1:1 ✺
25.02.23	Holstein Kiel - Paderborn	1:1 ✺
17.02.23	Eintracht Braunschweig - Holstein Kiel	2:3 ✺
11.02.23	Holstein Kiel - Magdeburg	2:3 ✺
04.02.23	Kaiserslautern - Holstein Kiel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TTWLL
- Jahn Regensburg
German 2 Bundesliga
04.03.23	Jahn Regensburg - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:1 ✺
24.02.23	Karlsruher - Jahn Regensburg	1:0 ✺
18.02.23	Jahn Regensburg - Hannover	1:1 ✺
11.02.23	Nürnberg - Jahn Regensburg	1:0 ✺
04.02.23	Jahn Regensburg - Arminia Bielefeld	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
03.09.22	Jahn Regensburg - Holstein Kiel	0:0
23.01.22	Jahn Regensburg - Holstein Kiel	1:2
14.08.21	Holstein Kiel - Jahn Regensburg	0:3
13.05.21	Holstein Kiel - Jahn Regensburg	3:2
12.12.20	Jahn Regensburg - Holstein Kiel	2:3
16.05.20	Jahn Regensburg - Holstein Kiel	2:2
06.10.19	Holstein Kiel - Jahn Regensburg	1:2

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