Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Referee: Bacher M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Holstein Kiel		Paderborn

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.3	2.35	Watch
	2.88	3.35	2.3	Watch
	3	3.47	2.32	Watch
	2.9	3.2	2.3
	2.96	3.37	2.4	Watch
	3.1	3.4	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.9)	3.35 ↓ (3.53)	2.32 (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
31.6%

Draw
27.9%

Paderborn
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

26.7%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

26.9%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	11.8%	70.6%

Holstein Kiel - Paderborn Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Paderborn will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Paderborn (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Holstein Kiel (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Paderborn (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Krumrey J. (C) 13. Nekic I. 26. Zec D. 6. Ivezic M. 29. Niehoff N. 28. Meffert J. 8. Tohumcu U. 47. Tolkin J. 10. Therkelsen J. 7. Skrzybski S. 19. Harres P.	41. Seimen D. (G) 20. Gotze F. (C) 25. Scheller T. 4. Brackelmann C. 17. Curda L. 14. Baur M. 26. Klaas S. 23. Obermair R. 11. Michel S. 9. Batzner N. 27. Tigges S.
Substitutes
15. Davidsen K. 18. Jakupovic A. 20. Kapralik A. 3. Komenda M. 25. Muller M. 23. Rosenboom L. 2. Roslyng F. 22. Schwab S. 1. Weiner T. (G)	7. Bilbija F. 5. Castaneda S. 28. Copado L. 6. Engelns L. 22. Hansen M. 2. Muller R. 10. Okpala K. 1. Schubert M. (G) 3. Sticker J.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Kettemann R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Skrzybski S. ⚽, Harres P. (A),
33', Baur M. 🟨,
44', Zec D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Tohumcu U. ↓, Davidsen K. ↑,
61', Niehoff N. ↓, Rosenboom L. ↑,
62', Batzner N. ↓, Okpala K. ↑,
62', Michel S. ↓, Bilbija F. ↑,
67', 2 - 0, Rosenboom L. ⚽,
68', Scheller T. ↓, Hansen M. ↑,
74', Skrzybski S. ↓, Kapralik A. ↑,
81', Tigges S. ↓, Muller R. ↑,
81', Klaas S. ↓, Engelns L. ↑,
82', Meffert J. 🟨,
85', Therkelsen J. ↓, Schwab S. ↑,
85', Harres P. ↓, Jakupovic A. ↑,
88', Jakupovic A. 🟨,
90+11', Okpala K. 🟨,
90+12', Hansen M. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 2.

Holstein Kiel is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paderborn is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Paderborn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Bernhardsson A. (Foot Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Johansson C. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Paderborn: Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:25. (average 2.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.7:1.5).

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

Holstein Kiel: 0.46%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Holstein Kiel	7	0	4	3	7:11	-4	4

Last Results with these Odds

Holstein Kiel - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32.56%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Paderborn - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.7%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
Club Friendly
10.01.26	Ferencvárosi - Holstein Kiel	0:2 ✺
07.01.26	Holstein Kiel - Servette	1:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
20.12.25	Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Magdeburg - Holstein Kiel	3:3 ✺
07.12.25	Eintracht Braunschweig - Holstein Kiel	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WTWTT
- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
19.12.25	Paderborn - Darmstadt	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Karlsruher - Paderborn	0:4 ✺
06.12.25	Paderborn - Elversberg	1:2 ✺
28.11.25	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Paderborn - Hannover	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
02.08.25	Paderborn - Holstein Kiel	2:1
17.02.24	Paderborn - Holstein Kiel	0:4
02.09.23	Holstein Kiel - Paderborn	2:1
25.02.23	Holstein Kiel - Paderborn	1:1
20.08.22	Paderborn - Holstein Kiel	7:2
04.03.22	Holstein Kiel - Paderborn	3:4
25.09.21	Paderborn - Holstein Kiel	1:2

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