Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 11

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Bartons North Wales Stadium (Holywell)

Referee: Jones A. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Wales	Cymru Football TV


	Holywell Town		Briton Ferry Llansawel

	1	X	2
	4.20	4.00	1.60
	4.10	3.90	1.63
	4.42	4.42	1.64
	4.36	4.36	1.65	Watch
	4.35	4.35	1.61
	4.18	4.29	1.68
	4.30	4.10	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.27 ↑ (4.07)	4.2 ↑ (4)	1.63 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holywell Town
21.6%

Draw
21.9%

Briton Ferry Llansawel
56.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.3%

22.7%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

21.9%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holywell Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Briton Ferry Llansawel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Holywell Town aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Briton Ferry Llansawel than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Holywell Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Swindell A. (G) 7. Bibby T. 9. Davies O. 8. Dogan T. 34. Edwards R. 18. Hughes C. 28. Morris H. 19. Sconce J. 6. Sullivan D. 12. Tierney J. 27. Yonsian F.	13. Fuller W. (G) 20. Anderson O. 2. Bates L. 16. Bates M. 15. Cooper L. 4. Gammond A. 21. Jones J. 7. Owen R. 3. Packer D. 8. Price T. 9. Walters T.
Substitutes
2. Bedford C. 31. Collins E. (G) 3. Davies M. 22. Edwards A. 14. Murtas F. 17. Reed J. 10. Winslade M.	14. Bowen L. 18. George R. 25. Gilpin D. (G) 11. Hurford C. 17. Jenkins T. 12. Lloyd J.
Coaches
Haseldin J.	Dyer A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Jones J. 🟨,
25', 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Yonsian F. ⚽,
34', Gammond A. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Jones J. ↓, Bowen L. ↑,
46', Anderson O. ↓, Hurford C. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Bowen L. ⚽,
65', Bibby T. ↓, Bedford C. ↑,
65', Davies O. ↓, Winslade M. ↑,
68', 🟨,
77', Cooper L. ↓, Lloyd J. ↑,
82', 🟨,
84', Walters T. ↓, Jenkins T. ↑,
88', Owen R. ↓, George R. ↑,
90', Hughes C. ↓, Davies M. ↑,
90', Yonsian F. ↓, Murtas F. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 16th in the Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ) and 12th in the Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: )).

A prolonged slump in results has affected both clubs ahead of this encounter.

Briton Ferry carries the favorite tag into this contest.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Briton Ferry: 0.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Briton Ferry	12	3	3	6	11:20	-9	12
16	Holywell	12	0	2	10	13:38	-25	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holywell Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.09.26	Haverfordwest County - Holywell Town	1:0 ✺
15.09.26	Holywell Town - Colwyn Bay	0:5 ✺
11.09.26	Cambrian United - Holywell Town	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Holywell Town - Trefelin	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Airbus UK Broughton - Holywell Town	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL
- Briton Ferry Llansawel
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.09.26	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Trefelin	1:1 ✺
15.09.26	Pen-y-Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel	3:2 ✺
11.09.26	Haverfordwest County - Briton Ferry Llansawel	3:1 ✺
04.09.26	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Airbus UK Broughton	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Barry Town United	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL

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