Match Info

National League South - Round 33

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday


	Hornchurch		Tonbridge Angels

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.7	4.25
	1.7	3.92	4.49
	1.69	4.03	4.37	Watch
	1.7	3.6	4.4
	1.65	3.68	4.52
	1.68	3.66	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.75)	3.77 ↓ (3.82)	4.42 ↑ (4.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
54.7%

Draw
24.5%

Tonbridge Angels
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

24.3%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

23.9%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Tonbridge Angels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tonbridge Angels than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Hornchurch - Tonbridge Angels Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Leahy T. ⚽,
37', 1 - 1, Gibbs H. ⚽,
45', 2 - 1, Sandat H. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
68', 2 - 2, Thompson J. ⚽,
90+3', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Hornchurch is a strong favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 0.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hornchurch won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Tonbridge: 2.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Tonbridge	10	4	2	4	19:11	8	14

Last Results with these Odds

Hornchurch - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 53.02%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
07.02.26	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Hornchurch	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Hornchurch - Torquay United	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Weston-super-Mare - Hornchurch	1:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
20.01.26	Hornchurch - AFC Telford United	1:2 ✺
English National League South
17.01.26	Hornchurch - Eastbourne Borough	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLWLW
- Tonbridge Angels
English National League South
10.02.26	Tonbridge Angels - Maidenhead United	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Tonbridge Angels - Maidstone United	1:1 ✺
26.01.26	Chelmsford City - Tonbridge Angels	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Slough Town - Tonbridge Angels	2:3 ✺
17.01.26	Tonbridge Angels - Totton	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
08.11.25	Tonbridge Angels - Hornchurch	0:1
18.04.25	Tonbridge Angels - Hornchurch	0:1
04.02.25	Hornchurch - Tonbridge Angels	2:2
English FA Trophy
15.12.20	Tonbridge Angels - Hornchurch	0:1
English Isthmian League Premier Division
09.03.19	Tonbridge Angels - Hornchurch	1:0
20.10.18	Hornchurch - Tonbridge Angels	0:2
04.04.15	Tonbridge Angels - Hornchurch	4:0

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