Match Info

National League South - Round 16

Date: 4 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium (Horsham)


	Horsham		Dover Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.75	4.45
	1.71	3.73	4.41
	1.63	4.19	4.44	Watch
	1.66	3.62	4.52
	1.55	4	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.63)	3.86 ↓ (4.19)	4.54 ↑ (4.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Horsham
56%

Draw
23.8%

Dover Athletic
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

22.2%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

21.1%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Horsham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Dover Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Horsham than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dover Athletic than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Horsham - Dover Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Murphy R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
88', 1 - 1, Onu R. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 13).

Horsham is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Dover's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Dover may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Horsham has had a series of away games.

In this match, Horsham is considered a favorite.

We predict that Horsham will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Horsham won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Horsham won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Horsham FC
English National League South
01.11.25	Bath City - Horsham	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Horsham - Enfield Town	1:0 ✺
21.10.25	Dagenham & Redbridge - Horsham	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Tonbridge Angels - Horsham	1:2 ✺
11.10.25	Dover Athletic - Horsham	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WWWWT
- Dover Athletic
English National League South
28.10.25	Dover Athletic - Chelmsford City	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	Worthing - Dover Athletic	3:1 ✺
21.10.25	Dover Athletic - Dorking Wanderers	2:2 ✺
18.10.25	Chippenham Town - Dover Athletic	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Dover Athletic - Horsham	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
11.10.25	Dover Athletic - Horsham	1:1
English Isthmian League Premier Division
01.01.25	Dover Athletic - Horsham	1:2
26.08.24	Horsham - Dover Athletic	1:3

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