Match Info

Premier League - Round 3

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: MKM Stadium (Hull) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport Premier League
Albania	18:30	SuperSport 3
Argentina	13:30	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1
Australia	02:30	Stan Sport
Austria	18:30	Laola1, Sky Go Austria
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:30	Arena Premium 1
Brazil	13:30	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	19:30	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	12:30	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Croatia	18:30	Arena Sport 1
Cyprus	19:30	Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	18:30	CANAL+ Sport
Denmark	18:30	TV3+, Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	19:30	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	18:30	CANAL+ Foot, CANAL+ Sport
Germany	18:30	Laola1, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League
Greece	19:30	Nova Sports Premier League
Hungary	18:30	TV2 Play Premium
India	22:00	JioStar, JioTV app
Israel	19:30	Sport 1
Italy	18:30	SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 258, Sky Sport 4K
Malaysia	00:30	Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League 6, Astro Premier League
Malta	18:30	TSN Malta 2
Mexico	10:30	Disney+, FOX One
Mongolia	00:30	Premier Sports 2
Netherlands	18:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	04:30	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 8
Norway	18:30	Viaplay
Peru	11:30	Disney+
Poland	18:30	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	17:30	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Serbia	18:30	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	18:30	Arena Sport 3
South Korea	01:30	Coupang Play
Spain	18:30	DAZN 1 Bar Espana, DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	18:30	Viaplay
Turkey	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	19:30	Setanta Sports
United Kingdom	17:30	Sky Go
Uruguay	13:30	Disney+
Usa	12:30	FuboTV, NBC Universo, NBC, SportsEngine Play, Telemundo
Venezuela	12:30	Disney+


	Hull City		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.7	1.8
	4.10	3.60	1.85
	4.35	3.6	1.82
	4.44	3.83	1.86
	4.01	3.8	1.93	Watch
	4.35	3.75	1.82
	4.52	3.88	1.87	Watch
	4.4	3.75	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.33 ↑ (3.98)	3.74 ↑ (3.66)	1.85 ↓ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hull City
22.2%

Draw
25.7%

Aston Villa
52.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.9%

26%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.5%

24.8%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hull City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hull City than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hull City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.5%	14.6%	65.9%

Hull City - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Hull will win (votes: 8 - 19.5%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 27 - 65.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 14.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 51.4% – 80.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Aston Villa (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aston Villa will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Hull (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Aston Villa (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Tzolakis K. (G) 2. Coyle L. (C) 6. Ajayi S. 15. Egan J. 32. Mendy N. 3. Giles R. 10. Belloumi M. 27. Slater R. 29. Gourna-Douath L. 21. Stroud E. 9. McBurnie O.	1. Suzuki Z. (G) 2. Cash M. 3. Lindelof V. 5. Mings T. 22. Maatsen I. 8. Kamara B. 6. Barkley R. 7. McGinn J. (C) 10. Buendia E. 53. Hemmings G. 11. Jackson N.
Substitutes
50. Cho M. 22. Herrington L. 14. Hjerto-Dahl J. 36. Mouzakitis C. 18. Norton-Cuffy B. 12. Phillips D. (G) 23. Targett M. 7. Thomas S. 47. Vaz R.	18. Abraham T. 47. Alysson 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 17. Garnacho A. 19. Mbaye I. 13. Ruggeri M. 14. Torres P. 29. Wan-Bissaka A.
Coaches
Jakirovic S.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Ajayi S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Stroud E. ↓, Thomas S. ↑,
64', Coyle L. ↓, Norton-Cuffy B. ↑,
67', Gourna-Douath L. 🟨,
71', Mendy N. ↓, Herrington L. ↑,
75', Buendia E. ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
75', Hemmings G. ↓, Alysson ↑,
75', Maatsen I. ↓, Ruggeri M. ↑,
81', Gourna-Douath L. ↓, Hjerto-Dahl J. ↑,
82', Belloumi M. ↓, Cho M. ↑,
85', Jackson N. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
85', Cash M. ↓, Wan-Bissaka A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hull won 1.

Hull is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aston Villa has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Hull may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Aston Villa has had a series of away games.

In this match, Aston Villa is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Hull: Butland J. (Arm Injury) Gyabi D. (Groin Injury) Hughes C. (Groin Injury) Matazo E. (Knee Injury) Zambrano O. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Joao Gomes (Red Card) Manzambi J. (Knee Injury) Onana A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Hull: Ansah I. (Back Injury) Crooks M. (Muscle Injury) Gelhardt J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Madjo B. (Ankle Injury)

We predict that Hull will win today's game, with odds of 4.1.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Hull won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hull won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Aston Villa	8	3	2	3	9:12	-3	11
10	Hull	8	2	4	2	9:8	1	10

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Aston Villa: 0.76%

Last Results with these Odds

Hull City - the odds 3.98 are the expected chance of winning is 23.88%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Aston Villa - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 50.15%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hull City
English Premier League
29.08.26	Coventry City - Hull City	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Stoke City - Hull City	1:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League
22.08.26	Hull City - Manchester United	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Hull City - Nice	0:0 ✺
01.08.26	Kasımpaşa - Hull City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.2 WWWTT
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
31.08.26	Aston Villa - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Super Cup
12.08.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
07.08.26	Bayern Munich - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
19.01.19	Aston Villa - Hull City	2:2
06.08.18	Hull City - Aston Villa	1:3
31.03.18	Hull City - Aston Villa	0:0
05.08.17	Aston Villa - Hull City	1:1
English Premier League
10.02.15	Hull City - Aston Villa	2:0
31.08.14	Aston Villa - Hull City	2:1
03.05.14	Aston Villa - Hull City	3:1

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