Match Info

Premier League - Round 3

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: MKM Stadium (Hull)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1
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France	CANAL+ Foot, CANAL+ Sport
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Malaysia	Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League 6, Astro Premier League
Malta	TSN Malta 2
Mexico	Disney+, FOX One
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Netherlands	Viaplay
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Norway	Viaplay
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Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Bar Espana, DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana
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United-kingdom	Sky Go
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Usa	FuboTV, NBC Universo, NBC, SportsEngine Play, Telemundo
Venezuela	Disney+


	Hull City		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.7	1.8
	4.10	3.60	1.85
	4.35	3.6	1.82
	4.44	3.83	1.86
	4.01	3.8	1.93	Watch
	4.35	3.75	1.82
	4.52	3.88	1.87	Watch
	4.4	3.75	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.33 ↑ (3.98)	3.74 ↑ (3.66)	1.85 ↓ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hull City
22.2%

Draw
25.7%

Aston Villa
52.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

26%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.5%

22.6%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hull City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hull City than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hull City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aston Villa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.5%	14.6%	65.9%

Hull City - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Hull will win (votes: 8 - 19.5%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 27 - 65.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 14.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 51.4% – 80.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Aston Villa (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aston Villa will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Hull (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Aston Villa (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Tzolakis K. (G) 2. Coyle L. (C) 6. Ajayi S. 15. Egan J. 32. Mendy N. 3. Giles R. 10. Belloumi M. 27. Slater R. 29. Gourna-Douath L. 21. Stroud E. 9. McBurnie O.	1. Suzuki Z. (G) 2. Cash M. 3. Lindelof V. 5. Mings T. 22. Maatsen I. 8. Kamara B. 6. Barkley R. 7. McGinn J. (C) 10. Buendia E. 53. Hemmings G. 11. Jackson N.
Substitutes
50. Cho M. 22. Herrington L. 14. Hjerto-Dahl J. 36. Mouzakitis C. 18. Norton-Cuffy B. 12. Phillips D. (G) 23. Targett M. 7. Thomas S. 47. Vaz R.	18. Abraham T. 47. Alysson 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 17. Garnacho A. 19. Mbaye I. 13. Ruggeri M. 14. Torres P. 29. Wan-Bissaka A.
Coaches
Jakirovic S.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Ajayi S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Stroud E. ↓, Thomas S. ↑,
64', Coyle L. ↓, Norton-Cuffy B. ↑,
67', Gourna-Douath L. 🟨,
71', Mendy N. ↓, Herrington L. ↑,
75', Buendia E. ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
75', Hemmings G. ↓, Alysson ↑,
75', Maatsen I. ↓, Ruggeri M. ↑,
81', Gourna-Douath L. ↓, Hjerto-Dahl J. ↑,
82', Belloumi M. ↓, Cho M. ↑,
85', Jackson N. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
85', Cash M. ↓, Wan-Bissaka A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hull won 1.

Hull is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aston Villa has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Hull may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Aston Villa has had a series of away games.

In this match, Aston Villa is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Hull: Butland J. (Arm Injury) Gyabi D. (Groin Injury) Hughes C. (Groin Injury) Matazo E. (Knee Injury) Zambrano O. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Joao Gomes (Red Card) Manzambi J. (Knee Injury) Onana A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Hull: Ansah I. (Back Injury) Crooks M. (Muscle Injury) Gelhardt J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Madjo B. (Ankle Injury)

We predict that Hull will win today's game, with odds of 4.1.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Hull won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hull won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Aston Villa: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Hull	5	2	2	1	6:4	2	8
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4:9	-5	4

Last Results with these Odds

Hull City - the odds 3.98 are the expected chance of winning is 23.88%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Aston Villa - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 50.15%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hull City
English Premier League
29.08.26	Coventry City - Hull City	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Stoke City - Hull City	1:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League
22.08.26	Hull City - Manchester United	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Hull City - Nice	0:0 ✺
01.08.26	Kasımpaşa - Hull City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.2 WWWTT
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
31.08.26	Aston Villa - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Super Cup
12.08.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
07.08.26	Bayern Munich - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
19.01.19	Aston Villa - Hull City	2:2
06.08.18	Hull City - Aston Villa	1:3
31.03.18	Hull City - Aston Villa	0:0
05.08.17	Aston Villa - Hull City	1:1
English Premier League
10.02.15	Hull City - Aston Villa	2:0
31.08.14	Aston Villa - Hull City	2:1
03.05.14	Aston Villa - Hull City	3:1

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