Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 19

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: John Ilhan Memorial Reserve (Nasiol) (Melbourne)


	Hume City		Dandenong City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.70	3.80	4.10
	1.65	3.8	4.05
	1.69	4.15	4.1
	1.72	4.08	4.01	Watch
	1.65	3.9	3.85
	1.66	3.9	4.12	Watch
	1.67	3.85	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (2.15)	3.93 ↑ (3.4)	4.05 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hume City
54.3%

Draw
23.2%

Dandenong City
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

26.2%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

24.4%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hume City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hume City's performance.

Dandenong City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dandenong City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hume City than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hume City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dandenong City than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dandenong City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Hume City - Dandenong City Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Hume City will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hume City won 3.

Hume City has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Dandenong City is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Hume City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hume City is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Hume City will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Hume City won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:12. (average 2.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hume City won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 14:5. (average 2.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hume City FC
Australian NPL Victoria
27.06.26	Dandenong Thunder - Hume City	1:3 ✺
20.06.26	Hume City - Green Gully	3:2 ✺
05.06.26	Bentleigh Greens - Hume City	1:5 ✺
30.05.26	Hume City - South Melbourne	1:1 ✺
23.05.26	Altona Magic - Hume City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWTW
- Dandenong City SC
Australian NPL Victoria
26.06.26	Dandenong City - Avondale	3:1 ✺
20.06.26	Caroline Springs George Cross - Dandenong City	3:2 ✺
05.06.26	Dandenong City - Heidelberg United	4:1 ✺
30.05.26	Melbourne City Youth - Dandenong City	0:1 ✺
22.05.26	Dandenong City - St Albans Dinamo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
20.03.26	Dandenong City - Hume City	1:1
06.06.25	Hume City - Dandenong City	3:0
28.02.25	Dandenong City - Hume City	1:3
12.07.24	Dandenong City - Hume City	2:4
13.04.24	Hume City - Dandenong City	0:0
04.06.22	Hume City - Dandenong City	1:2
04.03.22	Dandenong City - Hume City	2:1

Hume City - Dandenong City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide