Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 11

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday


	Hume City		Melbourne Knights

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.6	4.33	4.2
	1.58	4.1	4.5
	1.59	4.7	4.9
	1.59	4.62	4.56	Watch
	1.61	4.4	4.54	Watch
	1.58	4.1	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.44)	4.38 ↓ (5.06)	4.53 ↓ (4.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hume City
58.3%

Draw
21.2%

Melbourne Knights
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.5%

18.1%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

13.5%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hume City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hume City's form might have worsened.

Melbourne Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hume City than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hume City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Knights than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Hume City - Melbourne Knights Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, Bingham J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 2 - 0, Ochieng M. ⚽,
80', 2 - 1, Bramwell C. ⚽,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Victoria Premier League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hume City won 2.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Recently Melbourne Knights have a series of home games.

In this match Hume City is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Hume City won 7 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 36:35 (average 1.8:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Hume City won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 19:15 (average 2.1:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hume City FC
Australian NPL Victoria
11.04.25	Port Melbourne Sharks - Hume City	1:3 ✺
04.04.25	Hume City - Oakleigh Cannons	0:3 ✺
29.03.25	Avondale - Hume City	2:0 ✺
21.03.25	Hume City - South Melbourne	1:1 ✺
14.03.25	Heidelberg United - Hume City	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLLTL
- Melbourne Knights
Australian NPL Victoria
11.04.25	Melbourne Knights - Dandenong Thunder	0:3 ✺
04.04.25	Melbourne Knights - Preston Lions	0:1 ✺
30.03.25	Melbourne Knights - St Albans Dinamo	3:1 ✺
21.03.25	Melbourne Knights - Melbourne Victory Youth	1:2 ✺
14.03.25	Green Gully - Melbourne Knights	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
29.06.24	Hume City - Melbourne Knights	1:1
22.03.24	Melbourne Knights - Hume City	2:5
29.07.23	Hume City - Melbourne Knights	2:4
30.04.23	Melbourne Knights - Hume City	1:1
02.07.22	Hume City - Melbourne Knights	3:1
01.04.22	Melbourne Knights - Hume City	3:0
19.06.21	Hume City - Melbourne Knights	2:3

Hume City - Melbourne Knights: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide