Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 10

Date: 13 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Wiklöf Holding Arena (Mariehamn)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	IFK Mariehamn		Gnistan

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.75	1.75	Watch
	4.00	3.50	1.85
	4.25	3.55	1.78	Watch
	4.28	3.93	1.85
	4.04	3.83	1.84	Watch
	3.8	3.6	1.83
	3.96	3.68	1.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4 ↑ (3.42)	3.69 ↑ (3.38)	1.82 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

IFK Mariehamn
23.3%

Draw
25.3%

Gnistan
51.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

27.5%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

27%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

IFK Mariehamn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Gnistan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gnistan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for IFK Mariehamn than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gnistan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

IFK Mariehamn - Gnistan Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gnistan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Gnistan will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lund K. (G) 28. Nissinen J. 38. Amankwah Y. 4. Lindgren P. 31. Ngulube S. 2. Nurmi N. 18. Stroud A. 10. Dahlstrom S. (C) 6. Dosis N. 16. Huttunen A. 7. Larsson A.	1. Craninx A. (G) 24. Gnanou R. 67. Obileye A. (C) 4. Marcelo Costa 27. Hannula O. 31. Jouhi A. 15. Europaeus G. 10. Latonen J. 26. Eremenko R. 17. Akinyemi A. 23. Ylatupa S.
Substitutes
43. Andersson L. 64. Hyvonen M. 5. Koivisto T. 21. Lundberg A. 11. Pearce L. 32. Riikonen M. (G) 3. Soiniemi A.	7. Atarah A. 20. Bjurstrom M. H. 2. Dahlstrom B. 14. Eremenko S. 19. Hanninen V. 40. Ojala J. 11. Perez D. 22. Ramilson (G)
Coaches
Bjorknesjo R.	Leppalahti J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Marcelo Costa ⚽, Latonen J. (A),
28', 0 - 2, Latonen J. ⚽, Ylatupa S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lindgren P. ↓, Pearce L. ↑,
59', Lund K. 🟨,
59', Dahlstrom S. 🟨,
62', Jouhi A. ↓, Eremenko S. ↑,
62', Akinyemi A. ↓, Perez D. ↑,
65', 0 - 3, Perez D. ⚽, Eremenko R. (A),
74', Eremenko R. ↓, Atarah A. ↑,
74', Dosis N. ↓, Hyvonen M. ↑,
74', Larsson A. ↓, Lundberg A. ↑,
74', Stroud A. ↓, Andersson L. ↑,
80', Europaeus G. ↓, Hanninen V. ↑,
80', Gnanou R. ↓, Ojala J. ↑,
90', Atarah A. 🟨,
90+2', Amankwah Y. 🟨,
90+3', Nurmi N. ↓, Koivisto T. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mariehamn won 0.

Mariehamn has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gnistan is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gnistan is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Mariehamn: Bergvik A. (Injury) Jansson M. (Personal Reasons) Nunez W. (Personal Reasons) Patut E. (Yellow Cards) Stroud A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Gnistan: Bashkirov E. (Knee Injury) Launiala K. (Inactive) Lyberopoulos O. (Inactive) von Hellens L. (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Mariehamn won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:20. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mariehamn won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Outrights of Finnish Veikkausliiga for now

Gnistan: 1.75%

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Gnistan	26	11	9	6	40:32	8	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IFK Mariehamn
Finnish Veikkausliiga
30.05.26	HJK - IFK Mariehamn	1:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
26.05.26	IFK Mariehamn - Lahti	0:1 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.05.26	FF Jaro - IFK Mariehamn	3:0 ✺
16.05.26	IFK Mariehamn - KuPS Kuopio	1:1 ✺
Finnish Cup
13.05.26	IFK Mariehamn - Puistolan Urheilijat	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLLTW
- IF Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
30.05.26	Gnistan - SJK	3:2 ✺
23.05.26	Ilves - Gnistan	2:0 ✺
16.05.26	Gnistan - FF Jaro	5:0 ✺
09.05.26	VPS Vaasa - Gnistan	1:1 ✺
05.05.26	Gnistan - Inter Turku	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
30.01.26	Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn	2:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga
09.08.25	IFK Mariehamn - Gnistan	2:5
03.05.25	Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn	2:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
08.02.25	Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn	4:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga
15.09.24	Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn	2:1
21.08.24	Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn	2:1
26.05.24	IFK Mariehamn - Gnistan	1:1

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