Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 12

Date: 23 June 2026, Tuesday

Location: Wiklöf Holding Arena (Mariehamn)

Referee: Hajizadeh A. (Fin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	IFK Mariehamn		HJK

	1	X	2
	7.50	5.00	1.30	Watch
	7.00	5.50	1.35
	7.50	5.10	1.30
	7.98	6.28	1.35
	7.46	5.54	1.36	Watch
	7.00	5.00	1.33
	7.50	5.25	1.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.42 ↑ (7.2)	5.38 ↑ (4.6)	1.33 ↓ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

IFK Mariehamn
12.6%

Draw
17.4%

HJK
70.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.8%

20.1%

67.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.3%

19.2%

70.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

IFK Mariehamn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

HJK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for IFK Mariehamn than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

The ML Model estimate for HJK aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

IFK Mariehamn - HJK Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: HJK will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lund K. (G) 28. Nissinen J. 38. Amankwah Y. 2. Nurmi N. 31. Ngulube S. 10. Dahlstrom S. (C) 20. Patut E. 64. Hyvonen M. 16. Huttunen A. 11. Pearce L. 7. Larsson A.	1. Ost J. (G) 28. Ylitolva M. 6. Tikkanen V. 3. Cissokho T. 14. Montano L. 10. Lingman L. 15. Kallinen J. 22. Moller L. 4. Ring A. (C) 9. Borchers M. 20. Pukki T.
Substitutes
43. Andersson L. 6. Dosis N. 5. Koivisto T. 4. Lindgren P. 21. Lundberg A. 9. Nunez W. 32. Riikonen M. (G) 3. Soiniemi A. 18. Stroud A.	31. Bogicevic M. 7. Cicale A. 17. Kirilov M. 26. Lappalainen L. 24. Levealahti E. 2. Lyons-Foster B. 44. Markovic M. (G) 18. Mero T. 62. Palmula L.
Coaches
Bjorknesjo R.	Rantanen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Pukki T. ⚽, Borchers M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Nurmi N. ↓, Koivisto T. ↑,
55', Pearce L. 🟨,
64', 0 - 2, Borchers M. ⚽, Pukki T. (A),
66', Ring A. ↓, Lappalainen L. ↑,
66', 0 - 3, Lappalainen L. ⚽, Montano L. (A),
70', Pearce L. ↓, Dosis N. ↑,
70', Larsson A. ↓, Nunez W. ↑,
74', Cissokho T. ↓, Levealahti E. ↑,
74', Kallinen J. ↓, Palmula L. ↑,
74', Pukki T. ↓, Cicale A. ↑,
80', Borchers M. ↓, Kirilov M. ↑,
81', Montano L. 🟨,
84', Dahlstrom S. ↓, Andersson L. ↑,
84', Huttunen A. ↓, Soiniemi A. ↑,
86', 0 - 4, Lappalainen L. ⚽, Cicale A. (A),
90+2', Nissinen J. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mariehamn won 1.

Mariehamn has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

HJK is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mariehamn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, HJK is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Mariehamn: Bergvik A. (Injury)

There will not play in HJK: Mentu P. (Inactive) Nylund A. (Inactive) Simojoki K. (Inactive) Toivonen E. (Injury)

We predict that HJK will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mariehamn won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 16 matches, and goals 15:49. (average 0.8:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Mariehamn won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:13. (average 0.5:2.2).

Outrights of Finnish Veikkausliiga for now

HJK: 12.72%

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	HJK	26	13	6	7	45:29	16	45

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IFK Mariehamn
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.06.26	Oulu - IFK Mariehamn	2:1 ✺
13.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - Gnistan	0:3 ✺
30.05.26	HJK - IFK Mariehamn	1:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
26.05.26	IFK Mariehamn - Lahti	0:1 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.05.26	FF Jaro - IFK Mariehamn	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
17.06.26	HJK - Inter Turku	3:3 ✺
13.06.26	FF Jaro - HJK	2:5 ✺
Finnish Cup
09.06.26	Honka - HJK	1:7 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
30.05.26	HJK - IFK Mariehamn	1:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
26.05.26	HJK - MYPA	11:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
30.05.26	HJK - IFK Mariehamn	1:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
16.01.26	HJK - IFK Mariehamn	0:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga
24.08.25	HJK - IFK Mariehamn	8:2
24.05.25	IFK Mariehamn - HJK	0:4
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
14.02.25	HJK - IFK Mariehamn	2:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga
30.06.24	IFK Mariehamn - HJK	1:2
20.04.24	HJK - IFK Mariehamn	2:1

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