Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 - Round 28

Date: 28 March 2025, Friday


	Ibarra		Marino

	1	X	2
	2.09	3.15	3.3
	2.14	3.36	3.09	Watch
	2.15	3.22	3.1
	2.09	3.15	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.64)	3.22 ↓ (3.6)	3.2 ↓ (4.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ibarra
43.1%

Draw
28.3%

Marino
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

25.2%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

24.1%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ibarra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ibarra's form might have worsened.

Marino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marino's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ibarra than the current prediction. (+14.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ibarra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marino than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ibarra - Marino Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Marrero M. ⚽,
20', 1 - 1, Niki ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', 2 - 1, Ruiz K. ⚽,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 12 (Play Offs: ) and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ibarra won 2.

Recent matches Ibarra is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Marino is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Ibarra is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Ibarra won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10:9 (average 1.1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Ibarra won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:6 (average 0.6:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Ibarra
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 12
23.03.25	Mensajero - Ibarra	2:2 ✺
15.03.25	Ibarra - Lanzarote	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Arucas - Ibarra	1:2 ✺
01.03.25	Ibarra - UD San Fernando	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Unión Viera - Ibarra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TWWLT
- CD Marino
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 12
23.03.25	Marino - Los Llanos de Aridane	4:0 ✺
15.03.25	Panadería Pulido - Marino	3:0 ✺
09.03.25	Marino - Tamaraceite	0:3 ✺
02.03.25	Las Palmas B - Marino	6:0 ✺
23.02.25	Marino - Herbania	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 12
17.11.24	Marino - Ibarra	1:1
05.04.24	Ibarra - Marino	1:0
19.11.23	Marino - Ibarra	1:1
19.03.23	Marino - Ibarra	1:3
18.11.22	Ibarra - Marino	0:0
25.10.19	Ibarra - Marino	0:1
13.04.19	Marino - Ibarra	0:2

Ibarra - Marino: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide