Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 22

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday


	Ilkeston		Hednesford Town

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.25	2.02
	3.22	3.46	2.06
	3.25	3.59	2.07	Watch
	3.2	3.25	2
	3.35	3.56	2.04
	3.14	3.5	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↓ (3.25)	3.44 ↓ (3.47)	2.04 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilkeston
28.4%

Draw
26.7%

Hednesford Town
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

26.4%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

25.3%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilkeston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Hednesford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hednesford Town than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Ilkeston - Hednesford Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hednesford (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
24', 0 - 1, Watson N. ⚽,
28', 0 - 2, Sheaf M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', Parker S. 🟥,
64', 0 - 3, Rose A. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilkeston won 1.

Ilkeston has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Hednesford is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ilkeston may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Hednesford has had a series of home games.

Hednesford might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Hednesford will win today's game, with odds of 2.02.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ilkeston won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1.3:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ilkeston won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilkeston FC
English NPL Premier Division
29.11.25	United of Manchester - Ilkeston	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Ilkeston - Stocksbridge Park Steels	0:1 ✺
18.11.25	Hebburn Town - Ilkeston	5:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Ilkeston - Curzon Ashton	0:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
08.11.25	Ilkeston - Ashton United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Hednesford Town
English NPL Premier Division
06.12.25	Hednesford Town - Warrington Rylands	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Ashton United - Hednesford Town	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Hednesford Town - Cleethorpes Town	1:0 ✺
18.11.25	Hednesford Town - Bamber Bridge	3:0 ✺
11.11.25	Hednesford Town - Hyde United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
09.09.25	Hednesford Town - Ilkeston	2:1
English Southern League Central Division
08.04.23	Ilkeston - Hednesford Town	4:1
28.02.23	Hednesford Town - Ilkeston	2:2
English NPL Premier Division
28.03.17	Hednesford Town - Ilkeston	3:1
21.02.17	Ilkeston - Hednesford Town	0:2
20.04.13	Ilkeston - Hednesford Town	0:2

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