Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Tammelan Stadion (Tampere)

Referee: Marcenaro M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Ziggo Sport


	Ilves		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	5.75	5	1.38	Watch
	6.5	4.6	1.39
	7.5	5	1.33	Watch
	6.51	4.92	1.34
	2.80	4.29	2.09	Watch
	5.8	4.2	1.5
	8.35	5.36	1.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.17 ↓ (6.5)	4.77 ↑ (4)	1.48 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
15.5%

Draw
20.1%

AZ Alkmaar
64.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.8%

22.4%

63.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.4%

21.8%

65.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	10.3%	89.7%

Ilves - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH -1.5 - AZ (1.95) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Ilves (4.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Ilves (2.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - AZ (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - AZ (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (25 of 28 users predict this - 89.29%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.84% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AZ Alkmaar will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Ilves (votes: 2 - 9.1%). AZ (votes: 18 - 81.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Virtanen O. (C) 22. Maenpaa A. 5. Vaisanen S. 3. Rale M. 19. Jukkola O. 20. Tiitinen O. 30. Kanga J. 18. Ulundu V. 17. Soderback M. 8. Stjopin M. 10. Riski Ro.	41. Zoet J. (G) 30. Kasius D. 3. Goes W. 4. Dekker M. 34. de Wit M. 8. Clasie J. (C) 26. Smit K. 6. Koopmeiners P. 7. Poku E. 9. Parrott T. 27. Daal R.
Substitutes
27. Akinyemi A. 9. Hytonen T. 28. Kilo J. 12. Krkalic F. (G) 24. Kumpu V. 16. Miettunen T. 21. Moisio J. 72. Multala O. 23. Raymond A. 32. Vayrynen L. (G) 13. Wallius K.	28. Buurmeester Z. 15. Chavez Garcia M. 31. Deen D. (G) 22. Dijkstra E. 17. Jensen I. 21. Kwakman D. 35. Meerdink M. 10. Mijnans S. 5. Penetra 11. Sadiq I. 12. Verhulst H. (G)
Coaches
Rantanen J.	Martens M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Riski Ro. ⚽, Rale M. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Parrott T. ⚽, Smit K. (A),
43', Goes W. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 1, Riski Ro. ⚽, Ulundu V. (A),
45+3', Koopmeiners P. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
52', Tiitinen O. ↓, Multala O. ↑,
58', Clasie J. ↓, Mijnans S. ↑,
61', 2 - 2, Mijnans S. ⚽, Parrott T. (A),
62', Riski Ro. ↓, Akinyemi A. ↑,
62', Ulundu V. ↓, Raymond A. ↑,
68', 3 - 2, Akinyemi A. ⚽, Soderback M. (A),
71', 4 - 2, Soderback M. ⚽, Stjopin M. (A),
73', Parrott T. ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
73', Daal R. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
73', Smit K. ↓, Buurmeester Z. ↑,
74', Maenpaa A. ↓, Miettunen T. ↑,
74', Stjopin M. ↓, Kilo J. ↑,
78', Dekker M. ↓, Penetra ↑,
90+1', 4 - 3, Meerdink M. ⚽, Mijnans S. (A),

Preview

1st leg.

Ilves has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

AZ is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ilves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, AZ has had a series of home games.

In this match, AZ is the clear favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ilves
Finnish Veikkausliiga
20.07.25	FF Jaro - Ilves	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.07.25	Ilves - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
14.07.25	Ilves - VPS Vaasa	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
10.07.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Ilves	6:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
05.07.25	SJK - Ilves	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTWLT
- AZ Alkmaar
Club Friendly
19.07.25	AZ Alkmaar - Lokomotiva Zagreb	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	AZ Alkmaar - Almere City	3:2 ✺
09.07.25	AZ Alkmaar - Aris	3:2 ✺
05.07.25	AZ Alkmaar - Zulte Waregem	0:1 ✺
28.06.25	Kilmarnock - AZ Alkmaar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWLW

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