Match Info

Kansallinen Liiga Women - Championship Group

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tammelan Stadion (Tampere) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	15:00	Ruutu+


	Ilves		KuPS

	1	X	2
	4.80	4.20	1.49
	4.90	4.20	1.47
	4.53	4.38	1.51
	5.2	4.71	1.45	Watch
	4.45	4.30	1.49
	5.16	4.64	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.84 ↑ (4.4)	4.41 ↑ (4)	1.48 ↓ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
18.7%

Draw
20.5%

KuPS
60.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

20.2%

22.3%

57.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.7%

21.8%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

KuPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KuPS than the current prediction. (-2%)

Ilves - KuPS Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Korpi J. (G) 21. Ahonen H. 2. Hakola L. 3. Italinna E. 56. Lilja T. 8. Ljesnjanin A. 13. Luotonen A. 22. Olmala H. 4. Pirila R. 18. Pulkkinen E. 14. Rasinen A.	22. Arpiainen E. (G) 14. Hahl N. 20. Harmaala A. 23. Juusela N. 4. Laaksonen S. 24. Makipelkola E. 8. Oruetxebarria N. 6. Paavilainen L. 27. Perkaus H. 7. Rochi G. 16. Viinikka T.
Substitutes
20. Fomenko W. 10. Jantti C. 40. Juvonen K. 11. Lahteenmaki L. 31. Maki-Kamppi V. (G) 26. Purhonen P. 17. Tarkkanen A.	3. Beal R. M. 12. Hautamaki N. (G) 13. Kauppila A.-M. 5. Kouva S. 10. Kroger A. 2. Leiwo S. 17. Nurmi A. 30. Spenazzatto L. 18. Ukkonen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Luotonen A. ⚽, Lilja T. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 3)
51', 2 - 0, Luotonen A. ⚽,
59', Rochi G. ↓, Leiwo S. ↑,
59', Oruetxebarria N. ↓, Kroger A. ↑,
59', Hahl N. ↓, Nurmi A. ↑,
59', Juusela N. ↓, Spenazzatto L. ↑,
67', 3 - 0, Rasinen A. ⚽,
72', 3 - 1, Viinikka T. ⚽,
77', Laaksonen S. ↓, Ukkonen P. ↑,
80', Rasinen A. ↓, Purhonen P. ↑,
80', Ahonen H. ↓, Tarkkanen A. ↑,
81', 3 - 2, Nurmi A. ⚽, Viinikka T. (A),
87', Olmala H. ↓, Lahteenmaki L. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 3, Paavilainen L. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 2.

Ilves is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

KuPS is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Recently, KuPS has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this matchup, KuPS is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Ilves has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 15 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:61 (averaging 1.2:3.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ilves against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, with 13:27 goals (averaging 1.4:3 per game).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	KuPS W	24	14	3	7	48:30	18	45
5	Ilves W	24	8	3	13	42:52	-10	27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ilves Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
26.09.26	Gnistan - Ilves	0:3 ✺
19.09.26	Ilves - Åland United	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Ilves - HJK	2:5 ✺
29.08.26	HPS - Ilves	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	KuPS - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLL
- KuPS Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
26.09.26	KuPS - HJK	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	KuPS - HPS	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Åland United - KuPS	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	KuPS - Gnistan	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	KuPS - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
22.08.26	KuPS - Ilves	2:1
12.07.26	KuPS - Ilves	2:4
09.05.26	Ilves - KuPS	2:3
Finnish Cup Women
30.07.25	Ilves - KuPS	4:3 ET
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
17.08.24	KuPS - Ilves	8:0
Finnish Cup Women
03.08.24	KuPS - Ilves	2:0
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
25.05.24	Ilves - KuPS	2:3

Ilves - KuPS