Match Info

Kansallinen Liiga Women - Championship Group

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	13:00	Ruutu+


	Gnistan		Ilves

	1	X	2
	3.00	3.75	1.90
	3.10	3.65	1.86
	3.20	3.89	1.90
	3.09	4.08	1.91	Watch
	3.40	3.30	1.87
	3.32	4.08	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↑ (2.38)	3.79 ↑ (3.6)	1.89 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gnistan
28.3%

Draw
23.8%

Ilves
47.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.4%

24.7%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

23%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gnistan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gnistan's form might have worsened.

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilves's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gnistan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gnistan - Ilves Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Jokinen S. (G) 77. Byrne K. (C) 5. Koota V. 12. Kraemer A. 4. Laine I. 19. Laurinkoski H. 16. Lindroth A. 18. Martikainen O. 27. Raisanen L. 31. Salmela A. 14. Tiainen D.	1. Korpi J. (G) 21. Ahonen H. 3. Italinna E. 10. Jantti C. 56. Lilja T. 8. Ljesnjanin A. 13. Luotonen A. 22. Olmala H. 4. Pirila R. 18. Pulkkinen E. 14. Rasinen A. (C)
Substitutes
20. Gurung D. 3. Heikkila S. 22. Kattelus A. 8. Kemppainen S. 10. Leppioja J. 13. Merjamo N. 9. Tarkiainen P. 24. Tuomainen H. 1. Virtanen Espejo I. (G)	20. Fomenko W. 40. Juvonen K. 11. Lahteenmaki L. 31. Maki-Kamppi V. (G) 26. Purhonen P. 17. Tarkkanen A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
21', 0 - 1, Ljesnjanin A. ⚽,
28', 0 - 2, Rasinen A. ⚽,
33', Laurinkoski H. 🟨,
36', 0 - 3, Ljesnjanin A. ⚽,
39', Martikainen O. ↓, Kemppainen S. ↑,
40', Laurinkoski H. ↓, Gurung D. ↑,
42', Italinna E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Koota V. 🟨,
61', Lindroth A. ↓, Heikkila S. ↑,
61', Salmela A. ↓, Leppioja J. ↑,
62', Rasinen A. ↓, Purhonen P. ↑,
72', Jantti C. ↓, Lahteenmaki L. ↑,
81', Koota V. 🟨,
82', Byrne K. ↓, Merjamo N. ↑,
90+2', Ahonen H. ↓, Juvonen K. ↑,

Preview

Recent results have been tough for Gnistan (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Ilves is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Gnistan has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 6:6 (averaging 2:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gnistan against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:3 goals.

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ilves W	24	8	3	13	42:52	-10	27
6	Gnistan W	24	5	1	18	29:65	-36	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IF Gnistan Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
19.09.26	HJK - Gnistan	6:1 ✺
12.09.26	Gnistan - HPS	1:3 ✺
29.08.26	KuPS - Gnistan	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Gnistan - Åland United	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Ilves - Gnistan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLLLW
- FC Ilves Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
19.09.26	Ilves - Åland United	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Ilves - HJK	2:5 ✺
29.08.26	HPS - Ilves	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	KuPS - Ilves	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Ilves - Gnistan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
15.08.26	Ilves - Gnistan	1:2
18.07.26	Ilves - Gnistan	2:2
17.05.26	Gnistan - Ilves	2:3

Gnistan - Ilves