Match Info

Kansallinen Liiga Women - Championship Group

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Vare Areena (Kuopio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	KuPS		HJK

	1	X	2
	3.10	3.50	1.95
	3	3.4	2
	3.08	3.61	1.96
	3.16	3.78	1.95	Watch
	3	3.55	1.94
	3.19	3.71	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↓ (3.55)	3.59 ↑ (3.45)	1.97 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KuPS
29.2%

Draw
25.1%

HJK
45.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

25.9%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

25%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KuPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KuPS than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HJK than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

KuPS - HJK Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Arpiainen E. (G) 4. Laaksonen S. 2. Leiwo S. 24. Makipelkola E. 8. Oruetxebarria N. 6. Paavilainen L. 27. Perkaus H. 11. Pulkkanen A. 7. Rochi G. (C) 30. Spenazzatto L. 16. Viinikka T.	12. Laihanen A. (G) 30. Bethea L. 24. Eranka S. 15. Forsten A. 5. Gronlund J. 34. Hillberg L. 17. Holmstrom I. 35. Kalske N. 71. Kamogawa M. 13. Lassas M. (C) 18. Ylatalo I.
Substitutes
14. Hahl N. 20. Harmaala A. 23. Juusela N. 50. Konkka V. 5. Kouva S. 10. Kroger A.	25. Forsstrom S. (G) 2. Karvonen N. 27. Kiviranta M. 3. Lahikainen A. 4. Sarelius U. 16. Sarkki J. 8. Suomela R. 10. Topra J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Holmstrom I. ⚽, Lassas M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bethea L. ↓, Topra J. ↑,
46', Pulkkanen A. ↓, Hahl N. ↑,
46', Oruetxebarria N. ↓, Juusela N. ↑,
69', Ylatalo I. ↓, Kiviranta M. ↑,
69', Gronlund J. ↓, Karvonen N. ↑,
69', Spenazzatto L. 🟨,
73', Kalske N. ↓, Lahikainen A. ↑,
76', Topra J. 🟨,
76', Spenazzatto L. ↓, Kroger A. ↑,
88', Kamogawa M. ↓, Suomela R. ↑,
88', Leiwo S. ↓, Kouva S. ↑,
90+2', Suomela R. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KuPS won 2.

KuPS is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

HJK is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

KuPS could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to HJK for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, KuPS has recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:32 (averaging 1.2:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for KuPS against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 11:13 goals (averaging 1.1:1.3 per game).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	HJK W	22	18	1	3	62:21	41	55
3	KuPS W	22	13	3	6	43:29	14	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KuPS Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
19.09.26	KuPS - HPS	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Åland United - KuPS	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	KuPS - Gnistan	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	KuPS - Ilves	2:1 ✺
17.08.26	HJK - KuPS	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TWWWW
- HJK Helsinki Women
UEFA Europa Cup Women
23.09.26	HJK - Brann	0:2 ✺
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
19.09.26	HJK - Gnistan	6:1 ✺
12.09.26	Ilves - HJK	2:5 ✺
Finnish Cup Women
06.09.26	HPS - HJK	1:3 AET ✺
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
29.08.26	HJK - Åland United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
17.08.26	HJK - KuPS	0:1
Finnish Cup Women
08.07.26	KuPS - HJK	0:1
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
04.07.26	HJK - KuPS	2:0
02.05.26	KuPS - HJK	2:1
12.10.25	HJK - KuPS	3:2
15.08.25	KuPS - HJK	1:0
28.06.25	HJK - KuPS	1:0

KuPS - HJK: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide