The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Independiente Medellín 60.1%
Draw 24.7%
Envigado 15.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
66.8%
22.3%
11%
Our Initial ML Estimation
70.4%
21.2%
10.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Medellín's form might have worsened.
Envigado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+10.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Medellín, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Envigado than the current prediction. (-4.8%)
Independiente Medellín - Envigado Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind Medellín (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 26. Mena Perea E. 33. Londono D. 23. Torijano F. 2. Chaverra L. 19. Fydriszewski F. 31. Moreno D. 14. Perlaza B. 80. Serna A. 13. Chaverra F. 9. Sandoval L.
1. Montoya J. (G) 27. Quejada J. 28. Gamboa Valencia J. J. (C) 5. Norena S. 15. Cuervo S. 11. Garces J. 6. Palacio J. 14. Hinestroza J. 31. Berrio F. 34. Diaz L. 26. Valencia Mosquera D. A.
Substitutes
15. Alvarado J. 71. Arizala J. 25. Chaux E. (G) 8. Garcia M. 39. Mancilla G. 4. Mantilla K. 18. Maturana L. 3. Palacios J. 11. Valencia J.
80. Aristizabal J. 7. Dawson D. 8. Espana Alvarez R. C. 3. Holguin J. 18. Hurtado W. 38. Marulanda M. 13. Soto T. 4. Uribe N. 12. Villa M. (G) 29. Zapata D.
Coaches
Restrepo A.
Orozco A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Garces J. (Pen),
38', 1 - 1, Moreno D. ⚽,
45+4', Fydriszewski F. 🟨,
45+4', Quejada J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Serna A. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
66', Norena S. 🟨,
72', Garces J. ↓, Espana Alvarez R. C. ↑,
72', Fydriszewski F. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
81', Alvarado J. 🟨,
82', Berrio F. 🟨,
85', Hinestroza J. ↓, Aristizabal J. ↑,
85', Valencia Mosquera D. A. ↓, Soto T. ↑,
87', Chaverra F. 🟨,
88', Chaverra F. ↓, Mantilla K. ↑,
88', Sandoval L. ↓, Arizala J. ↑,
90', Palacio J. 🟨,
90+1', Palacio J. ↓, Dawson D. ↑,
90+1', Berrio F. ↓, Marulanda M. ↑,
Preview
1st leg result: 1-0. 2nd leg.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 4.
Ind Medellín is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Envigado is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Envigado may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Ind Medellín is the clear favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 30:19. (average 1.5:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:9. (average 1.7:1).
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Aguerre W. (G) 
Mena Perea E. 
Fydriszewski F. 
Dawson D. 
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