Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 4 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Tello F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Germany	Sport 1+
Portugal	Sport TV


	Independiente Medellín		Internacional RS

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.2	2.45	Watch
	3.1	3	2.35
	3.15	3.25	2.35
	3.21	3.05	2.54
	3.1	2.88	2.35
	3.1	3.1	2.43	Watch
	3.05	3.05	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.5)	3.08 ↓ (3.1)	2.4 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
30.2%

Draw
30.6%

Internacional RS
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

29.6%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

29.3%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Medellín's form might have worsened.

Internacional RS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Internacional RS's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Medellín, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Internacional RS than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Internacional RS, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	37.5%	50%

Independiente Medellín - Internacional RS Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Internacional will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Internacional: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Independiente Medellín could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Independiente Medellín won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Independiente Medellín won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
01.04.23	Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
25.03.23	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
19.03.23	Independiente Medellín - Jaguares de Córdoba	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.03.23	Independiente Medellín - Deportes Magallanes	2:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
11.03.23	Boyacá Chicó - Independiente Medellín	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TTWWL
- Internacional RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
26.03.23	Internacional RS - Caxias	1:2 penalties ✺
18.03.23	Caxias - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
11.03.23	Internacional RS - Esportivo Bento Gonçalves	4:1 ✺
05.03.23	Grêmio - Internacional RS	2:1 ✺
25.02.23	Aimoré - Internacional RS	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
17.05.22	Internacional RS - Independiente Medellín	2:0
26.04.22	Independiente Medellín - Internacional RS	0:1

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