Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 21 August 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Rodrigues de Souza F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	ESPN
Indonesia	Mola TV
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Russia	Okko Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, FuboTV
World	Amazon Prime Video, DirecTV Sports, Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Independiente Medellín		Palestino

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.25	5.75	Watch
	1.73	3.3	5
	1.75	3.4	5
	1.79	3.33	5.75
	1.87	3.29	4.75	Watch
	1.67	3.3	5	Watch
	1.77	3.4	5.2	Watch
	1.75	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.95)	3.33 ↑ (2.55)	5.18 ↓ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS 6

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
53.6%

Draw
28.2%

Palestino
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

36.3%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

40%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente Medellín's performance.

Palestino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	13.6%	4.5%

Independiente Medellín - Palestino Predictions

Users Predictions: Independiente Medellín will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Chaux E. (G) 2. Chaverra L. 24. Ortiz J. 23. Torijano F. 7. Varela J. 17. Fory J. 14. Perlaza B. 15. Alvarado J. 31. Moreno D. 27. Leon Muniz B. 9. Sandoval L.	1. Rigamonti C. (G) 3. Rojas B. 17. Roman I. 13. Suarez C. 28. Zuniga D. 23. Martinez Arce A. E. 5. Linares N. 10. Davila Carvajal M. 7. Carrasco B. 27. Marabel J. 11. Benitez J.
Substitutes
3. Aja J. 34. Blanco I. (G) 33. Chaverra F. 12. Chunga J. (G) 8. Garcia M. 26. Graciano C. 77. Jhon Vasquez 5. Lima P. 13. Londono D. 18. Martinez Yepez H. E. 20. Montano J. 10. Vinicius Marcus	14. Abrigo J. 16. Bizama J. 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 22. Chamorro F. 26. Contreras D. (G) 29. Garguez Gomez I. A. 20. Garro J. 15. Montes Romero F. T. 24. Palacio P. 9. Sosa G. 19. Vejar B.
Coaches
Restrepo A.	Bovaglio L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Roman I. (Own goal),
34', Roman I. 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Alvarado J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Martinez Arce A. E. ↓, Abrigo J. ↑,
65', Davila Carvajal M. 🟨,
66', 3 - 0, Chaverra L. (Pen),
67', 4 - 0, Perlaza B. ⚽, Sandoval L. (A),
69', Davila Carvajal M. ↓, Montes Romero F. T. ↑,
69', Benitez J. ↓, Garro J. ↑,
69', Zuniga D. ↓, Garguez Gomez I. A. ↑,
77', Moreno D. ↓, Lima P. ↑,
77', Sandoval L. ↓, Jhon Vasquez ↑,
77', Torijano F. ↓, Martinez Yepez H. E. ↑,
77', Carrasco B. ↓, Vejar B. ↑,
82', Chaverra L. ↓, Vinicius Marcus ↑,
90', Leon Muniz B. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Palestino could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Independiente Medellín is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Independiente Medellín won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Independiente Medellín won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Copa Sudamericana
14.08.24	Palestino - Independiente Medellín	2:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
04.08.24	Deportivo Cali - Independiente Medellín	2:0 ✺
31.07.24	Independiente Medellín - Boyacá Chicó	1:0 ✺
27.07.24	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	0:0 ✺
22.07.24	Deportivo Pereira - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TLWTT
- CD Palestino Santiago
Chilean Primera Division
18.08.24	Unión La Calera - Palestino	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.08.24	Palestino - Independiente Medellín	2:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
09.08.24	Palestino - OHiggins	4:1 ✺
03.08.24	Universidad Católica - Palestino	1:1 ✺
29.07.24	Cobreloa - Palestino	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
14.08.24	Palestino - Independiente Medellín	2:2
Copa Libertadores
12.02.19	Independiente Medellín - Palestino	1:2 penalties
06.02.19	Palestino - Independiente Medellín	1:1

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