Match Info

Division Profesional - Round 4

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Patria (Sucre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bolivia	Entel Gol 56, Futbol Canal


	Independiente Petroleros		Universitario de Vinto

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.6	2.7	Watch
	2.22	3.7	2.68
	2.23	3.95	2.7
	2.28	3.94	2.7	Watch
	2.25	3.5	2.63
	2.23	3.6	2.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (1.98)	3.72 ↓ (3.78)	2.68 ↓ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Petroleros
41.1%

Draw
24.7%

Universitario de Vinto
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

24.2%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

22.7%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Petroleros has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Petroleros's form might have worsened.

Universitario de Vinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Petroleros than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Petroleros, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universitario de Vinto than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Universitario de Vinto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Independiente Petroleros - Universitario de Vinto Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Ind Petroleros will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Uni de Vinto will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gutierrez J. (G) 2. Torres S. 16. Montero R. 13. Montenegro L. 4. Rodriguez F. 19. Cristaldo G. 6. Rojas D. 93. Willie 59. Villavicencio J. 9. Cristaldo J. E. (C) 7. Cardozo R.	1. Poveda B. (G) 10. Torrico J. 17. Torrico D. 34. Jara A. 28. Jose Pinto 21. Cuellar G. 24. Rodriguez H. 30. Cuadiay Fernandez M. 9. Llano R. 8. Camacho Almanza D. A. 22. Calicho J. (C)
Substitutes
82. Claros D. 39. Grass P. 32. Leanos H. 68. Morales D. 27. Navarro D. 5. Palma L. 8. Somoya M. 14. Urdininea C. 50. Vargas D. 12. Vera J. (G) 77. Zamora R.	25. Abrego J. 5. Alcocer P. 7. Dorrego H. 77. Garcia P. (G) 6. Gomez M. 70. Lazarte J. 4. Lopez B. 33. Machaca V. 45. Mamani Y. 13. Pardo S. 23. Straccia E. F. 20. Valencia J.
Coaches
Thiago Leitao	Straccia M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', Cuellar G. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Villavicencio J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 2 - 0, Willie ⚽, Villavicencio J. (A),
57', Cuadiay Fernandez M. ↓, Lazarte J. ↑,
61', Jose Pinto ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
64', Rodriguez F. ↓, Leanos H. ↑,
64', Cristaldo G. ↓, Vargas D. ↑,
71', Torres S. 🟨,
72', Cuellar G. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
72', Calicho J. ↓, Mamani Y. ↑,
72', Camacho Almanza D. A. ↓, Dorrego H. ↑,
72', Rojas D. ↓, Navarro D. ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Jara A. ⚽, Dorrego H. (A),
77', Cristaldo J. E. ↓, Claros D. ↑,
77', Torres S. ↓, Palma L. ↑,
82', Montenegro L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Petroleros won 2.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Ind Petroleros may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ind Petroleros could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Ind Petroleros won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:24. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ind Petroleros won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.9:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Independiente	20	7	4	9	27:35	-8	25
14	Universitario de Vinto	20	5	3	12	26:39	-13	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Petroleros
Bolivian Division Profesional
21.04.26	Bolívar - Independiente Petroleros	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	Caracas - Independiente Petroleros	1:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
10.04.26	Guabirá - Independiente Petroleros	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.04.26	Independiente Petroleros - Racing	1:3 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
03.04.26	Independiente Petroleros - Nacional Potosí	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.9 WLTLL
- Universitario de Vinto
Bolivian Division Profesional
21.04.26	Universitario de Vinto - ABB	5:2 ✺
11.04.26	Nacional Potosí - Universitario de Vinto	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Universitario de Vinto - The Strongest	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
10.03.26	Universitario de Vinto - Real Oruro	1:1 ✺
06.03.26	Real Oruro - Universitario de Vinto	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Bolivian Division Profesional
10.12.25	Universitario de Vinto - Independiente Petroleros	2:3
Bolivian Copa Pacena
15.07.25	Independiente Petroleros - Universitario de Vinto	0:1
Bolivian Division Profesional
12.07.25	Independiente Petroleros - Universitario de Vinto	1:1
Bolivian Copa Pacena
24.06.25	Universitario de Vinto - Independiente Petroleros	3:0
Bolivian Division Profesional
09.12.24	Independiente Petroleros - Universitario de Vinto	3:2
17.08.24	Universitario de Vinto - Independiente Petroleros	1:2
12.03.24	Independiente Petroleros - Universitario de Vinto	1:0

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