Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 4 April 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Gracia Benitez L. D. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional, ViX Latin America
Usa	Fanatiz


	Independiente Santa Fe		Deportivo Pasto

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.5	6.5	Watch
	1.68	3.3	5
	1.65	3.5	6	Watch
	1.62	3.42	6.42	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.5
	1.63	3.56	6.61	Watch
	1.65	3.5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.62)	3.41 ↓ (3.55)	5.86 ↑ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

Watch this match and Colombian Primera A with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: Nuestra Tele

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Santa Fe
56.4%

Draw
27.6%

Deportivo Pasto
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

25.9%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

25.1%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Deportivo Pasto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo Pasto Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Fe (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Santa Fe (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Independiente Santa Fe will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Fe (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mosquera A. (G) 17. Ararat J. 18. Olivera E. 3. Moreno V. 32. Mafla C. 14. Torres J. 20. Velasquez Y. 8. Fernandez O. 80. Albornoz O. 23. Mosquera H. 11. Rodallega H.	12. Cabezas V. (G) 20. Castano M. (C) 24. Alarcon A. 23. Rios J. 15. Franco J. 4. Caicedo L. 6. Caicedo J. 13. Castilla J. 8. Charrupi G. 27. Morinigo N. 9. Torres G.
Substitutes
34. Balanta M. 12. Mehring A. (G) 27. Perlaza Perea Y. A. 29. Rios L. 9. Rodriguez A. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 16. Torres D.	2. Carabali B. 19. Castillo D. 33. Lopez Larrota K. E. (G) 70. Quinones D. 7. Rendon K. 10. Ritacco G. 16. Sanchez B.
Coaches
Lopez Fierro J.	Ayala C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Velasquez Y. 🟨,
41', Castano M. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Rodallega H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Velasquez Y. ↓, Torres D. ↑,
59', Albornoz O. ↓, Perlaza Perea Y. A. ↑,
65', Morinigo N. ↓, Ritacco G. ↑,
65', Castano M. ↓, Castillo D. ↑,
65', Castilla J. ↓, Quinones D. ↑,
65', Mosquera H. ↓, Rios L. ↑,
71', Torres J. 🟨,
72', Franco J. 🟨,
77', Charrupi G. ↓, Rendon K. ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Rendon K. ⚽,
79', Torres G. 🟨,
82', Fernandez O. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
82', Ararat J. ↓, Scarpeta Silgado I. R. ↑,
90', Torres G. ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santa Fe won 2.

Santa Fe is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Deportivo Pasto is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Deportivo Pasto could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Santa Fe is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Santa Fe won 10 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 24:17 (average 1.2:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Santa Fe won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15:9 (average 1.5:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
30.03.25	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
26.03.25	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
22.03.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Millonarios	3:2 ✺
19.03.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Once Caldas - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLWTW
- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera A
29.03.25	Deportivo Pasto - Deportivo Cali	1:1 ✺
22.03.25	Boyacá Chicó - Deportivo Pasto	0:0 ✺
14.03.25	Deportivo Pasto - Deportivo La Equidad	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Deportivo Pasto - Llaneros SA	1:0 ✺
03.03.25	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo Pasto	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
02.12.24	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo Pasto	1:2
29.11.24	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Santa Fe	1:0
17.07.24	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo Pasto	2:1
22.01.24	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1
06.08.23	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Santa Fe	2:0
14.02.23	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo Pasto	0:2
10.09.22	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo Pasto	2:1

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