Match Info

Date: 9 April 2021, Friday


	Independiente del Valle		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.2	3.1	2.3
	3.25	3.15	2.2	Watch
	3.1	3	2.25
	2.91	3.28	2.53
	2.5	3	3.1	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (1.8)	3.1 ↓ (3.48)	2.44 ↓ (4.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
30.9%

Draw
30.4%

Grêmio
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

26.9%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.8%

21.3%

16.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente del Valle's form might have worsened.

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grêmio's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+34.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-22%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grêmio, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.8%	7.5%	81.7%

Independiente del Valle - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 120 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 13 - 10.8%). Grêmio will win (votes: 98 - 81.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 7.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 74.8% – 88.6%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

1st leg.

Independiente del Valle in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Grêmio is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Independiente del Valle could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.04.21	Barcelona Guayaquil - Independiente del Valle	2:2 ✺
31.03.21	Técnico Universitario - Independiente del Valle	0:2 ✺
20.03.21	Independiente del Valle - Delfín	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.03.21	Independiente del Valle - Unión Española	6:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.03.21	SD Aucas - Independiente del Valle	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWWWW
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
03.04.21	Grêmio - Internacional RS	1:0 ✺
31.03.21	São Luiz - Grêmio	2:2 ✺
28.03.21	Grêmio - Brasil de Pelotas	4:0 ✺
25.03.21	Juventude - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
22.03.21	EC São José Porto Alegre - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTWLT

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