Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Centreville Bank Stadium (Pawtucket, RI)

Referee: Flores G. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Rhode Island		Miami

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.38	4.50	6.00
	1.42	4.4	5.9
	1.46	4.65	6.88
	1.43	4.71	6.27	Watch
	1.42	4.85	6.25
	1.44	4.46	6.63	Watch
	1.4	4.5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.36)	4.58 ↓ (4.77)	6.28 ↓ (6.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rhode Island
65.1%

Draw
20.2%

Miami
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.2%

19.2%

13.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.9%

18.2%

12.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rhode Island has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Miami has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rhode Island than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rhode Island, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Rhode Island - Miami Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koke Vegas (C) 22. Scardina N. 24. Yao K. 5. Stoneman G. 15. Nodarse F. 77. Shapiro-Thompson A. 8. Leo Afonso 17. Kwizera J. 14. Tsukada Y. 18. Foyo O. 37. Korzeniowski S.	1. Room E. (G) 2. Al Zubaidi H. 14. Rogers A. 13. Knutson D. (C) 21. Milesi A. 22. Da Costa R. 5. Tori R. 9. Sonora J. 7. Tunbridge M. 24. Milanes Navarro C. D. 26. Rocha A.
Substitutes
7. Atkinson D. 29. Castro J. (G) 11. Fuson N. 21. Herivaux Z. 16. Klein E. 28. Medina K. 2. Rovira D. 3. Sanchez A.	4. Calfo A. 16. Diaz G. 17. Levin J. 30. Medranda J. 31. Rodriguez F. (G) 8. Romero M.
Coaches
Smith K.	Maddoni G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Rocha A. ⚽, Al Zubaidi H. (A),
29', Kwizera J. 🟨,
36', 1 - 1, Yao K. ⚽, Tsukada Y. (A),
39', Tori R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Tunbridge M. 🟨,
54', Shapiro-Thompson A. 🟨,
56', Nodarse F. 🟨,
59', Foyo O. ↓, Fuson N. ↑,
64', Al Zubaidi H. ↓, Romero M. ↑,
66', Fuson N. 🟨,
69', Milanes Navarro C. D. 🟨,
70', Sonora J. ↓, Diaz G. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Milanes Navarro C. D. ⚽,
79', Tsukada Y. ↓, Atkinson D. ↑,
79', Scardina N. ↓, Herivaux Z. ↑,
80', Shapiro-Thompson A. ↓, Klein E. ↑,
81', Tori R. ↓, Calfo A. ↑,
81', Tunbridge M. ↓, Mello D. ↑,

Preview

Rhode Island has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Miami has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Recently, Miami has had a run of games away from home.

Rhode Island holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Rhode Island has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:6 (averaging 2.6:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Rhode Island against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 8:2 goals (averaging 4:1 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rhode Island FC
USL Championship
12.09.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Rhode Island	0:3 ✺
05.09.26	Rhode Island - Louisville City	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Tulsa - Rhode Island	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Rhode Island - Monterey Bay	3:1 ✺
15.08.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Rhode Island	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WTLWL
- Miami FC
USL Championship
12.09.26	Brooklyn - Miami	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Miami - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2:2 ✺
24.08.26	Charleston Battery - Miami	5:0 ✺
15.08.26	Hartford Athletic - Miami	2:1 ✺
USL Cup
12.08.26	San Antonio - Miami	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
28.03.26	Miami - Rhode Island	2:1
19.09.25	Miami - Rhode Island	0:1
07.06.25	Rhode Island - Miami	0:1
26.10.24	Rhode Island - Miami	8:1
13.07.24	Miami - Rhode Island	2:3

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