Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Michael A. Carroll Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)

Referee: Yaya A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Indy Eleven		Birmingham Legion

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.57	4.00	4.33
	1.58	4.15	4.4
	1.58	4.69	5
	1.56	4.57	4.72	Watch
	1.52	4.55	4.9
	1.53	4.33	4.65	Watch
	1.58	4.2	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.68)	4.36 ↑ (4.15)	4.63 ↑ (4.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Indy Eleven
59%

Draw
21.1%

Birmingham Legion
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

22.4%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

21.5%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Indy Eleven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Birmingham Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Indy Eleven than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Indy Eleven - Birmingham Legion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dick E. (G) 13. Hafferty J. 37. Craig P. 4. Herbert A. 29. Mitrano A. 5. O'Brien J. 8. Blake J. 6. Lindley C. 14. Quinn A. (C) 19. Kizza E. 27. Rendon B.	1. Koleilat J. (G) 77. Brown N. 16. Vassell P. 27. Washington B. (C) 21. Tregarthen S. 18. Antwi S. 8. Cole K. 32. Diop H. 19. Diarbian G. 17. Williams R. 15. Pasher T.
Substitutes
39. Barry H. 23. Charles-Cook R. (G) 15. Henry-Scott M. 90. Mesanvi L. 21. Rasheed M. 9. Sharp C. 20. Sing D.	26. Daley A. 9. Damus R. 11. McCartney D. 12. McMullen T. (G) 81. Ngoma S. 20. Paterson AJ 7. Saucedo S.
Coaches
McAuley S.	Heaps J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Hafferty J. ⚽,
32', Williams R. 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Pasher T. ⚽, Diarbian G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', O'Brien J. ↓, Mesanvi L. ↑,
66', 1 - 2, Williams R. ⚽, Vassell P. (A),
67', Tregarthen S. ↓, McCartney D. ↑,
67', Williams R. ↓, Damus R. ↑,
67', Pasher T. ↓, Ngoma S. ↑,
76', Mitrano A. ↓, Sharp C. ↑,
76', Kizza E. ↓, Sing D. ↑,
77', Craig P. ↓, Rasheed M. ↑,
77', Diop H. ↓, Paterson AJ ↑,
85', Diarbian G. ↓, Daley A. ↑,
87', Cole K. 🟨,
90+8', 2 - 2, Sing D. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Indy won 4.

Recent performances by Indy have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Birmingham's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Indy is a strong favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Indy won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:20. (average 1.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Indy won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 2.3:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Birmingham Legion - the odds 4.18 are the expected chance of winning is 22.25%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Indy Eleven
USL Championship
29.08.26	Phoenix Rising - Indy Eleven	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Indy Eleven - Louisville City	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Indy Eleven	0:1 ✺
09.08.26	Indy Eleven - Hartford Athletic	1:1 ✺
31.07.26	San Antonio - Indy Eleven	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWTL
- Birmingham Legion
USL Championship
29.08.26	Hartford Athletic - Birmingham Legion	3:2 ✺
22.08.26	Birmingham Legion - Sporting Jacksonville	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Birmingham Legion	3:2 ✺
02.08.26	Birmingham Legion - Rhode Island	1:0 ✺
29.07.26	Louisville City - Birmingham Legion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
19.04.26	Birmingham Legion - Indy Eleven	2:2
21.09.25	Indy Eleven - Birmingham Legion	2:1
USL Cup
28.06.25	Indy Eleven - Birmingham Legion	2:1 penalties
USL Championship
04.06.25	Birmingham Legion - Indy Eleven	0:1
19.10.24	Indy Eleven - Birmingham Legion	3:2
09.06.24	Birmingham Legion - Indy Eleven	0:1
09.08.23	Indy Eleven - Birmingham Legion	4:0

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