Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Michael A. Carroll Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)

Referee: Bych I. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Indy Eleven		Sporting Jacksonville

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.66	3.7	4.1
	1.62	3.85	4.75
	1.6	4.34	6.07
	1.59	4.13	5	Watch
	1.57	3.6	4.8
	1.61	3.92	5.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.66)	3.92 ↑ (3.85)	4.99 ↑ (4.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Indy Eleven
57.7%

Draw
23.7%

Sporting Jacksonville
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

23.9%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

20.5%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Indy Eleven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Sporting Jacksonville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Indy Eleven than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Indy Eleven that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Jacksonville than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting Jacksonville could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Indy Eleven - Sporting Jacksonville Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dick E. (G) 17. Neidlinger L. 4. Herbert A. 37. Craig P. 14. Quinn A. (C) 6. Lindley C. 27. Rendon B. 5. O'Brien J. 8. Blake J. 90. Mesanvi L. 18. Okello N.	31. Olivares C. (G) 18. Ackwei W. 2. Neville H. 15. Edwards R. (C) 22. Gomez A. 24. Roberts T. 6. Rossiter J. 11. Al Qaq A. 26. Granitur L. 16. Jaaskelainen E. 19. Pedder R.
Substitutes
39. Barry H. 23. Charles-Cook R. (G) 19. Kizza E. 29. Mitrano A. 21. Rasheed M. 20. Sing D. 10. Williams K.	4. Dudley E. 7. Evans J. 8. Kuzain W. 1. McGuire J. (G) 10. Sadlier K. 17. Soto E. 32. Soumaoro B.
Coaches
McAuley S.	Fox L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Pedder R. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Al Qaq A. ⚽, Jaaskelainen E. (A),
45+1', Herbert A. 🟨,
45+5', Al Qaq A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Okello N. ↓, Kizza E. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Rendon B. ⚽, Quinn A. (A),
62', Pedder R. ↓, Sadlier K. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Herbert A. ⚽,
66', Granitur L. ↓, Soto E. ↑,
80', Ackwei W. ↓, Kuzain W. ↑,
80', Roberts T. ↓, Evans J. ↑,
84', Mesanvi L. ↓, Barry H. ↑,
87', Neville H. 🟨,
88', Rendon B. ↓, Sing D. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 13).

Indy has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sporting Jax is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Indy is considered a favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Indy Eleven
USL Championship
02.05.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Indy Eleven	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Indy Eleven - Union Omaha	1:2 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.26	Birmingham Legion - Indy Eleven	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Indy Eleven - Monterey Bay	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	Indy Eleven - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTWT
- Sporting Jacksonville
USL Championship
02.05.26	Charleston Battery - Sporting Jacksonville	4:0 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Miami	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
18.04.26	Louisville City - Sporting Jacksonville	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Detroit City - Sporting Jacksonville	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Tampa Bay Rowdies	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

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