Match Info

GREECE: SUPER LEAGUE - ROUND 21

Date: 4 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis (Athens)

Referee: Tzovaras G. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub


	Ionikos Nikaias		Aris

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.3	1.85	Watch
	4.2	3.3	1.85
	4.6	3.25	1.78
	4.4	3.25	1.79
	4.46	3.37	1.9
	4.2	3.1	1.85
	4.45	3.36	1.86	Watch
	4.5	3.3	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.45 ↓ (4.6)	3.28 ↓ (3.44)	1.84 ↑ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ionikos Nikaias
21%

Draw
28.4%

Aris
50.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

27.1%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

27.1%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ionikos Nikaias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Aris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ionikos Nikaias than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aris than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Ionikos Nikaias - Aris Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Ionikos will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Aris will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aris: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group)).

Ionikos is Super League (Relegation Group)

Ionikos has the most likely position - 13 (35.03%), has project points - 27, has currently - 11, has a chance of relegated (36%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Aris has the most likely position - 5 (76.53%), has project points - 55, has currently - 31, has not chance of relegated, has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 29, small importance 24, small match rating 27. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Ionikos could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Aris is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Ionikos won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Ionikos won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ionikos Nikaias
Greek Super League
30.01.23	Lamia - Ionikos Nikaias	0:2 ✺
22.01.23	Ionikos Nikaias - AEK Athens	1:2 ✺
16.01.23	Ionikos Nikaias - Volos	0:1 ✺
08.01.23	Atromitos Athens - Ionikos Nikaias	2:0 ✺
03.01.23	Ionikos Nikaias - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLLL
- Aris Thessaloniki
Greek Super League
29.01.23	AEK Athens - Aris	3:0 ✺
Greek Cup
25.01.23	Aris - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:1 ✺
Greek Super League
21.01.23	Aris - Volos	3:0 ✺
Greek Cup
18.01.23	Olympiacos Piraeus - Aris	1:0 ✺
Greek Super League
15.01.23	Olympiacos Piraeus - Aris	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
15.10.22	Aris - Ionikos Nikaias	2:1
Club Friendly
14.07.22	Aris - Ionikos Nikaias	2:0
Greek Super League
20.12.21	Aris - Ionikos Nikaias	1:0
17.09.21	Ionikos Nikaias - Aris	1:0

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