Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Sergio León Chavez (Irapuato)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Irapuato		Correcaminos UAT

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.28	5	7.75
	1.29	5.15	8.1
	1.31	5.49	8.94
	1.11	9.86	15.52	Watch
	1.34	5.23	7.59	Watch
	1.29	5	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.62)	5.96 ↑ (4.05)	9.32 ↑ (4.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Irapuato
74.1%

Draw
15.8%

Correcaminos UAT
10.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

22.8%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

22.2%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Irapuato has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Irapuato's performance.

Correcaminos UAT has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Correcaminos UAT might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Irapuato than the current prediction. (-15.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Irapuato that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Correcaminos UAT than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Correcaminos UAT could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Irapuato - Correcaminos UAT Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Irapuato will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Irapuato (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Hernandez H. (C) 3. Alvarado V. 6. del Angel E. 2. Doldan J. 5. Elbis 31. Pena R. 9. Pucheta J. 10. Rangel J. 34. Ruiz J. 25. Sanchez B. 16. Sandoval R.	1. Castellanos R. (G) 7. Cisneros D. (C) 8. Garcia J. 17. Garcia J. 10. Hernandez E. 6. Martinez J. 27. Martinez J. 13. Moreno G. 3. Pereyra J. 2. Pineda I. 34. Velazquez H.
Substitutes
14. de Alba J. 28. Gamboa J. 1. Magana G. (G) 13. Martinez R. 22. Munoz G. 4. Rivera M. 19. Santana C. 26. Santillan E. 7. Sosa J. 23. Zamudio J.	104. Arce R. 86. Barron D. 5. Capeluto J. 35. Chavez L. (G) 11. Espinosa Y. 20. Estopier J. 28. Lopez M. 15. Mengual A. 91. Sarmiento M. 30. Villareal A.
Coaches
Alcantar D.	Urbina J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Doldan J. ⚽,
14', Pena R. 🟨,
16', Pineda I. 🟨,
22', 2 - 0, Doldan J. ⚽, Ruiz J. (A),
32', Velazquez H. ↓, Estopier J. ↑,
36', 3 - 0, Martinez J. (Own goal),
44', Castellanos R. 🟥,
45+2', Martinez J. ↓, Chavez L. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 4 - 0, Pucheta J. ⚽, Elbis (A),
61', Hernandez H. ↓, Magana G. ↑,
61', Alvarado V. ↓, de Alba J. ↑,
61', Ruiz J. ↓, Munoz G. ↑,
61', Rangel J. ↓, Gamboa J. ↑,
63', Garcia J. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
63', Hernandez E. ↓, Arce R. ↑,
63', Pineda I. ↓, Espinosa Y. ↑,
75', Sandoval R. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
80', Pucheta J. 🟨,
85', 4 - 1, Moreno G. ⚽, Espinosa Y. (A),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 13).

Recent performances by Irapuato have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Correcaminos has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Correcaminos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Irapuato is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Irapuato won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Irapuato won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Irapuato
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
28.09.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Irapuato	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Irapuato - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Dorados - Irapuato	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Irapuato - Jaiba Brava	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Atlante - Irapuato	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WTWTL
- Correcaminos UAT
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
26.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	3:6 ✺
19.09.25	Tapatío - Correcaminos UAT	2:2 ✺
12.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
06.09.25	Atlante - Correcaminos UAT	5:1 ✺
29.08.25	Correcaminos UAT - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
06.03.15	Correcaminos UAT - Irapuato	3:0
20.09.14	Irapuato - Correcaminos UAT	0:1
08.02.13	Correcaminos UAT - Irapuato	3:1
25.08.12	Irapuato - Correcaminos UAT	1:0

Upcoming Matches