Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Marte R. Gómez (Ciudad Victoria)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean


	Correcaminos UAT		Jaiba Brava

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.20	3.40	2.70
	2.22	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.3	3.78	2.93
	2.25	3.71	2.86	Watch
	2.2	3.7	2.85
	2.16	3.44	2.84	Watch
	2.23	3.4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.3)	3.55 ↓ (3.61)	2.83 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Correcaminos UAT
41.4%

Draw
26%

Jaiba Brava
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

25.9%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

24.9%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Correcaminos UAT has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Jaiba Brava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Correcaminos UAT than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Correcaminos UAT - Jaiba Brava Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Correcaminos will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Jaiba Brava will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perez E. (G) 2. Ortega W. 22. Di Pippa A. 3. Perez O. 19. Catalan A. 7. Islas O. 8. Torres D. 25. Torres E. (C) 33. Mina D. 29. Mendoza B. 10. Guzman W.	13. Ruiz G. (C) 22. Arriaga N. 26. Manzanarez O. 17. Ramirez I. 25. Padilla A. 7. Magana D. 5. Ochoa I. 16. Martinez J. 11. Cruz C. 10. Torres E. 19. Lopez D.
Substitutes
27. Cantu J. 20. Estopier J. 82. Garcia Gonzalez I. P. (G) 12. Gomez Del Rosal N. 23. Gonzalez R. 5. Monarrez A. 13. Moreno G. 32. Sandoval T. 14. Sosa C. 11. Uribe Y.	2. Bocco L. 27. Escalante E. 1. Garcia J. (G) 8. Gonzalez R. 21. Lopez F. 33. Martinez S. 177. Mendez O. 18. Serna A. 20. Tovar J.
Coaches
Pereyra G.	Ruiz M. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Manzanarez O. 🟨,
35', Cruz C. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', 1 - 0, Islas O. (Penalty Awarded),
67', Magana D. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
69', Di Pippa A. ↓, Sandoval T. ↑,
72', Arriaga N. 🟨,
72', Ortega W. 🟨,
73', Lopez D. ↓, Escalante E. ↑,
74', Arriaga N. ↓, Tovar J. ↑,
74', Martinez J. ↓, Mendez O. ↑,
75', Manzanarez O. 🟨,
81', Mendoza B. ↓, Gomez Del Rosal N. ↑,
84', Ramirez I. 🟨,
88', Gonzalez R. 🟨,
88', Torres E. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
88', Islas O. ↓, Estopier J. ↑,
90+2', Escalante E. 🟨,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10th and 12th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Correcaminos won 2.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Correcaminos has recorded 7 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 22:19 (averaging 1.3:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Correcaminos against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 15:7 goals (averaging 1.9:0.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Correcaminos	11	4	4	3	19:18	1	16
13	Jaiba Brava	11	3	2	6	12:19	-7	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Correcaminos UAT
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
18.09.26	Atlético La Paz - Correcaminos UAT	3:1 ✺
11.09.26	Correcaminos UAT - Cancún	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Piratas de Veracruz - Correcaminos UAT	4:1 ✺
28.08.26	Correcaminos UAT - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
20.08.26	Atlético Morelia - Correcaminos UAT	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LTLTW
- Club Jaiba Brava
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.09.26	Jaiba Brava - Dorados	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Jaiba Brava - Venados	4:3 ✺
29.08.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Jaiba Brava	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Jaiba Brava - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
18.03.26	Jaiba Brava - Correcaminos UAT	3:1
12.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Jaiba Brava	1:2
30.01.25	Correcaminos UAT - Jaiba Brava	2:1
15.08.24	Jaiba Brava - Correcaminos UAT	0:0
27.03.22	Correcaminos UAT - Jaiba Brava	2:1
09.10.21	Jaiba Brava - Correcaminos UAT	3:3
27.03.21	Correcaminos UAT - Jaiba Brava	2:2

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