Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Play Offs - Final

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Sergio León Chavez (Irapuato)

Referee: Sanchez M. E. L. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports, Disney+, ESPN


	Irapuato		Jaiba Brava

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.08	3	3.6	Watch
	2.17	3	3.96
	1.92	3.49	3.82	Watch
	2.13	3.14	3.55	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.11)	3.11 ↓ (3.18)	3.74 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Irapuato
45%

Draw
30%

Jaiba Brava
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

29%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

29.4%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Irapuato has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Jaiba Brava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Irapuato than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (+2%)

Irapuato - Jaiba Brava Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Hernandez H. (C) 3. Alvarado V. 6. del Angel E. 2. Doldan J. 5. Elbis 28. Gamboa J. 31. Pena R. 10. Rangel J. 34. Ruiz J. 25. Sanchez B. 16. Sandoval R.	13. Ruiz G. (G) 22. Clemente J. 28. Flores S. (C) 3. Garcia D. 33. Gonzalez R. 24. Lopez Gonzalez J. A. 7. Magana D. 26. Perez E. 25. Perez O. 4. Rios A. 8. Torres E.
Substitutes
14. de Alba J. 1. Magana G. (G) 15. Magana J. 13. Martinez R. 22. Munoz G. 4. Rivera M. 19. Santana C. 26. Santillan E. 7. Sosa J. 23. Zamudio J.	14. Corona N. 23. Escoboza A. 6. Garcia E. 1. Garcia J. (G) 2. Gonzalez C. 19. Martinez F. 29. Pedroza M. 21. Peralta J. 30. Ramos Saucedo S. 10. Soto O.
Coaches
Alcantar D.	Ruiz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Rios A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Gonzalez R. 🟨,
56', Pena R. 🟨,
62', Magana D. ↓, Corona N. ↑,
62', Doldan J. ↓, Santana C. ↑,
68', Lopez Gonzalez J. A. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
68', Perez E. ↓, Pedroza M. ↑,
71', Gamboa J. ↓, Zamudio J. ↑,
71', del Angel E. ↓, Munoz G. ↑,
78', Flores S. 🟨,
79', Gonzalez R. ↓, Escoboza A. ↑,
79', Clemente J. ↓, Garcia E. ↑,
87', Sandoval R. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
87', Pena R. ↓, Santillan E. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Irapuato has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Jaiba Brava is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Irapuato will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Irapuato won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Irapuato won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Irapuato - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 43.62%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Irapuato
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.11.25	Irapuato - Atlético Morelia	1:1 ✺
19.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Irapuato	0:0 ✺
15.11.25	Irapuato - Mineros de Zacatecas	2:2 ✺
12.11.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Irapuato	1:1 ✺
07.11.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Irapuato	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TTTTT
- Club Jaiba Brava
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
23.11.25	Jaiba Brava - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
20.11.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Jaiba Brava	0:1 ✺
16.11.25	Jaiba Brava - Leones Negros UdeG	4:1 ✺
13.11.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Jaiba Brava	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Jaiba Brava	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
30.08.25	Irapuato - Jaiba Brava	1:1
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
13.01.24	Irapuato - Jaiba Brava	4:2

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