Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Sergio León Chavez (Irapuato)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Irapuato		Tepatitlán de Morelos

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.87	3.3	3.5
	2.25	3.35	2.88
	1.96	3.55	3.76
	2.35	3.31	2.92	Watch
	2.34	3.28	2.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.93)	3.36 ↑ (3.31)	3.21 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Irapuato
43.2%

Draw
27.7%

Tepatitlán de Morelos
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

28.2%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

28.4%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Irapuato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Irapuato's form might have worsened.

Tepatitlán de Morelos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tepatitlán de Morelos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Irapuato than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Irapuato, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tepatitlán de Morelos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

Irapuato - Tepatitlán de Morelos Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tepatitlán will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tepatitlán (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Tepatitlán (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tepatitlán (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Hernandez H. (C) 3. Alvarado V. 5. Elbis 31. Pena R. 9. Pucheta J. 10. Rangel J. 24. Rodriguez A. 34. Ruiz J. 25. Sanchez B. 16. Sandoval R. 23. Zamudio J.	1. Gutierrez G. (G) 22. Aguilar D. 13. Aguilar M. 19. Ballesteros O. 24. Cardona U. 28. Cerda J. 27. Garcia D. 2. Ocon L. 6. Ruiz A. 20. Samano L. 23. Venegas J. (C)
Substitutes
17. Cervantes D. 14. de Alba J. 6. del Angel E. 2. Doldan J. 1. Magana G. (G) 13. Martinez R. 4. Rivera M. 19. Santana C. 26. Santillan E. 7. Sosa J.	5. Chavez A. 26. Dominguez I. 18. Gomez J. 17. Lorona L. 9. Machado J. 8. Montano T. 10. Munoz Z. 29. Quiroz A. (G) 11. Reyes J. 25. Soto A.
Coaches
Alcantar D.	Real H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Zamudio J. 🟨,
28', Ballesteros O. 🟨,
29', Cerda J. 🟨,
44', Zamudio J. 🟨,
45+2', Elbis 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cerda J. ↓, Chavez A. ↑,
46', Garcia D. ↓, Machado J. ↑,
52', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
59', Aguilar D. ↓, Munoz Z. ↑,
68', Aguilar M. 🟨,
72', Aguilar M. ↓, Lorona L. ↑,
72', Samano L. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
78', Pucheta J. ↓, Santana C. ↑,
79', Rangel J. ↓, Santillan E. ↑,
79', Sanchez B. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
90+1', Pena R. 🟨,
90+1', Alcantar D. 🟨,
90+4', Cardona U. 🟨,
90+5', Sandoval R. ↓, Doldan J. ↑,
90+6', Rodriguez A. ↓, del Angel E. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In recent matches, Irapuato has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tepatitlán is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Irapuato may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Irapuato will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Irapuato
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
05.09.25	Dorados - Irapuato	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Irapuato - Jaiba Brava	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Atlante - Irapuato	4:0 ✺
16.08.25	Irapuato - Tlaxcala	3:0 ✺
10.08.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Irapuato	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WTLWL
- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.09.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1 ✺
29.08.25	Correcaminos UAT - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:4 ✺
22.08.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Dorados	3:0 ✺
17.08.25	Tapatío - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:3 ✺
09.08.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Jaiba Brava	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWWWT

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