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Current Win Probability
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 29.3%
Draw 26.3%
Irapuato 44.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.6%
25.4%
39%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.6%
25.4%
39%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alebrijes de Oaxaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alebrijes de Oaxaca's form might have worsened.
Irapuato has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Irapuato's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (+6.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alebrijes de Oaxaca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Irapuato than the current prediction. (-5.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Irapuato, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Irapuato Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
35. Gonzalez Arriaga O. A. (G) 4. Alvarez K. (C) 177. Bustos J. 10. Carballo E. 1. Cruz J. 15. Lopez E. 11. Mascorro H. 29. Meza S. 8. Morales F. 5. Vazquez Garza H. A. 14. Vazquez Hernandez A.
20. Hernandez H. (C) 3. Alvarado V. 2. Doldan J. 5. Elbis 31. Pena R. 9. Pucheta J. 10. Rangel J. 24. Rodriguez A. 34. Ruiz J. 25. Sanchez B. 16. Sandoval R.
Substitutes
25. Andrey Marcos 6. Arellano A. 175. Gallinar S. 3. Justo A. 17. Nunez D. 33. Olaguez E. 19. Pineda D. 171. Ramirez L. A. (G) 24. Rojas D. 2. Santos E.
14. de Alba J. 6. del Angel E. 28. Gamboa J. 11. Lumbreras J. 1. Magana G. (G) 13. Martinez R. 22. Munoz G. 4. Rivera M. 26. Santillan E.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
5', Doldan J. 🟨,
13', Alvarado V. 🟨,
16', Rangel J. 🟨,
25', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
26', Vazquez Hernandez A. 🟥,
42', Mascorro H. ↓, Santos E. ↑,
44', 0 - 1, Doldan J. ⚽, Pena R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Alvarez K. 🟨,
55', Sanchez B. ↓, Gamboa J. ↑,
64', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
65', Carballo E. ↓, Nunez D. ↑,
65', Bustos J. ↓, Andrey Marcos ↑,
65', Meza S. ↓, Rojas D. ↑,
72', Doldan J. ↓, Munoz G. ↑,
72', Rangel J. ↓, del Angel E. ↑,
84', Santos E. 🟨,
88', Cruz J. 🟨,
89', Nunez D. ↓, Pineda D. ↑,
90+2', Pineda D. 🟥,
90+4', 0 - 2, Gamboa J. ⚽, Munoz G. (A),
90+7', Pucheta J. ↓, Lumbreras J. ↑,
90+7', Gamboa J. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
Preview
The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
Recent form of Alebrijes de Oaxaca has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Irapuato has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Irapuato will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).
Including home match between the teams, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
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Gonzalez Arriaga O. A. (G) 
Alvarado V. 
Doldan J. 
Elbis 
Pucheta J. 
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