Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Poljud (Split) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ciochirca P. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	13:45	Disney+
Armenia	20:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8
Australia	03:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Sport Austria 8
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Canada	12:45	DAZN Canada
Chile	13:45	Disney+
Colombia	11:45	Disney+
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Estonia	19:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 10
Germany	18:45	RTL+
Hong Kong	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	18:45	RTL+
Iceland	16:45	Viaplay
Indonesia	23:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Israel	19:45	Sport 3
Lithuania	19:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	18:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	10:45	Disney+
Netherlands	18:45	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	05:45	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Peru	11:45	Disney+
Philippines	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport Extra 4
Portugal	17:45	DAZN / App
Serbia	18:45	Arena Sport 9
Singapore	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	18:45	SportKlub 1
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 13, M+ Liga de Campeones 3, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 22, Blue Sport 22
Thailand	23:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United Kingdom	17:45	HBO Max, TNT Sports 9
Uruguay	13:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	12:45	Disney+


	Hajduk Split		Ajax

	1	X	2
	4.1	4.2	1.75
	4.50	4.10	1.60
	4.1	3.85	1.72
	4.25	4.17	1.8
	4.06	4.19	1.78	Watch
	4	4.1	1.77
	4.1	4.2	1.75
	4.3	4.3	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.18 ↓ (6.2)	4.14 ↓ (4.74)	1.74 ↑ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hajduk Split
22.7%

Draw
22.9%

Ajax
54.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

15.2%

19.9%

64.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.3%

22.7%

74.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hajduk Split has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hajduk Split's performance.

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ajax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hajduk Split than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hajduk Split that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+19.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.1%	3%	84.8%

Hajduk Split - Ajax Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (28 of 33 users predict this - 84.85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.62% – 97.08%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Silic T. (G) 22. Acapandie M. 6. Hadzikadunic D. 15. Maresic D. 32. Hrgovic S. 20. del Moral A. 8. Fayad K. 7. Sanyang A. 9. de Almeida D. 23. Soticek M. 11. Sego M. (C)	1. ter Stegen M. (G) 6. Kehrer T. 30. Bouwman A. 15. Baas Y. 21. Torrents J. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 4. Amrabat S. 8. Brandt J. 11. Tsygankov V. 99. Arokodare T. 68. Ouazane A.
Substitutes
18. Dendoncker L. 99. Fesyuk D. (G) 3. Gabric R. 38. Hodak L. 26. Huram A. 10. Livaja M. 77. Martin C. 17. Melnjak D. 14. Raci R. 44. Stipica D. (G) 16. Sutalo A. 5. Van Hoorenbeeck A.	67. Abdalla M. 43. Bounida R. 20. Edvardsen O. 62. El Hani A. (G) 10. Gloukh O. 36. Janse D. 38. Marcos Leonardo 24. Mokio J. 26. Paes M. (G) 2. Rosa L. 5. Wijndal O.
Coaches
Garcia G.	Michel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Sanyang A. ⚽, Soticek M. (A),
45', del Moral A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 1 - 1, Klaassen D. ⚽, Kehrer T. (A),
55', 2 - 1, Soticek M. ⚽, Sego M. (A),
60', Sego M. 🟨,
69', del Moral A. ↓, Dendoncker L. ↑,
76', Klaassen D. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
76', Ouazane A. ↓, Gloukh O. ↑,
76', Tsygankov V. ↓, Rosa L. ↑,
77', Torrents J. ↓, Marcos Leonardo ↑,
82', Hrgovic S. ↓, Melnjak D. ↑,
82', Sanyang A. ↓, Sutalo A. ↑,
90+1', Sego M. ↓, Martin C. ↑,
90+1', Fayad K. ↓, Van Hoorenbeeck A. ↑,

Preview

Hajduk has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Ajax has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, Ajax has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Bookmakers give the edge to Ajax for this game.

Confirmed absences for Hajduk: Brajkovic R. (Knee Injury) Ivusic I. (Illness) Pajaziti A. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Ajax: Berghuis S. (Injury) Blind D. (Back Injury) Caio Henrique (Thigh Injury) Dolberg K. (Knee Injury) Gaaei A. (Injury).

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	3:1	2	6
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	3:2	1	3

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Ajax: 6.18% Hajduk Split: 0.8%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hajduk Split
Croatian HNL
10.10.26	Hajduk Split - Dinamo Zagreb	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Rijeka - Hajduk Split	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Hajduk Split - Slaven Belupo	1:0 ✺
Croatian Cup
08.09.26	Vardarac Vardaroc - Hajduk Split	0:2 ✺
Croatian HNL
06.09.26	Rudeš - Hajduk Split	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWWW
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
10.10.26	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Ajax - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
15.09.26	Ajax - Willem II	5:1 ✺
12.09.26	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	1:5 ✺
05.09.26	Ajax - PSV Eindhoven	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TTWWL

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