Match Info
Copa do Nordeste - Round 3Date: 9 April 2026, ThursdayLocation: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana)
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Itabaiana |
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Confiança |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
- The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Itabaiana
36.4% | Draw
30.9% | Confiança
32.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Itabaiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (-0.1%)Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DNB - Confiança (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Confiança (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
1.  Jefferson (C)
8. Caio Felipe
5. Gustavo Crecci
4. Gustavo Fagundes
7. Leilson
9. Luan Silva
3. Lucao
11. Pedro Igor
10. Renatinho
2. Ricardo Cerqueira
6. Tito
| 1. Rafael Pascoal (C)
21.  Breiner C.
4. Eduardo Moura
8. Gabriel Zeca
3. Lucas Cunha
6. Matheus Juliao
7.  PF
10. PK
13. Renilson
2. Valdir Junior
9. Wendel
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| Substitutes |
17.  Balde R.
13. Betao
21. Elimar
19. Everton Kanela
15. Fabricio Moura
12. Geaze (G)
14. Gustavo Cintra
22. Isaque
18. Karl
23. Lucas Bessa
20. Rodrigo Alves
16. Tarcisio
| 11. Andrey Quintino
20. Danielzinho
18. Fabricio
22. Iago
14. Icaro
17. Joao Pedro
5. Lorran
19. Maikon Aquino
15. Marcelo
12. Matheus Silva (G)
99. Sassa
16. Weriton
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 6', Valdir Junior ↓, Weriton ↑,
- 45+4', 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 49', Ricardo Cerqueira 🟨,
- 60', Breiner C. ↓, Andrey Quintino ↑,
- 62', 🟨,
- 62', Leilson 🟨,
- 63', Pedro Igor ↓, Elimar ↑,
- 70', Caio Felipe ↓, Karl ↑,
- 70', Leilson ↓, Rodrigo Alves ↑,
- 70', 0 - 1, ⚽,
- 72', Wendel ↓, Sassa ↑,
- 79', Ricardo Cerqueira ↓, Lucas Bessa ↑,
- 79', Gustavo Crecci ↓, Everton Kanela ↑,
- 90+2', 🟨,
Preview
First leg result: 2-1. Aggregate: 2-3. Second leg.In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 1.Itabaiana is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).Confiança's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Confiança may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 0.9:1).Including home matches between the teams, Itabaiana won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.8:1.2).
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Form
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✺ - difficult match;
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