Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 12

Date: 27 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping


	Itabaiana		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.37	2.87	2.80
	2.50	3.00	2.90	Watch
	2.42	3.10	3.08
	2.65	2.92	2.86	Watch
	2.30	3.00	3.00
	2.32	2.99	2.98
	2.38	2.85	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.5)	2.96 ↓ (3)	2.92 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
37.8%

Draw
30.9%

Ferroviária
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

30.9%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

31.3%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Itabaiana - Ferroviária Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Itabaiana will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Ferroviária will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jefferson (G) 9. Cleiton 5. Gustavo Crecci 3. Gustavo Fagundes 8. Karl (C) 7. Leilson 4. Ligger 23. Lucas Bessa 2. Ricardo Cerqueira 10. Rodrigo Alves 6. Tarcisio	31. Denis Junior (G) 10. Albano 8. Alencar (C) 9. Denilson Silva 7. Fau 22. Felipe Rodrigues 4. Guilherme Ferreira 6. Rhuan 5. Ricardinho 19. Thiago M. 51. Vinicius M.
Substitutes
21. Caio Felipe 22. Dudu 18. Elimar 17. Fabricio Oya 12. Geaze (G) 14. Gustavo Cintra 15. Isaque 13. Lucao 20. Manoel 11. Renatinho 16. Tito 19. Vitinho	38. Allison 17. Cantarelli M. 36. Douglas Skilo 29. Eduardo Oliveira 15. Fernandinho 34. Gustavo Jundi (G) 14. Jhonatan Garcia 30. Raoni 23. Schilling Arthur 25. Vinni Faria

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Rhuan 🟨,
33', Guilherme Ferreira 🟨,
37', Gustavo Crecci 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 1 - 0, Cleiton ⚽,
64', Fau ↓, Allison ↑,
67', Rhuan 🟨,
69', Ricardo Cerqueira ↓, Isaque ↑,
72', Thiago M. ↓, Eduardo Oliveira ↑,
72', Vinicius M. ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
73', Karl 🟨,
75', Cleiton ↓, Elimar ↑,
75', Karl ↓, Fabricio Oya ↑,
75', Felipe Rodrigues 🟨,
78', Felipe Rodrigues ↓, Raoni ↑,
85', Lucas Bessa ↓, Caio Felipe ↑,
85', Tarcisio ↓, Tito ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Recent performances by Itabaiana have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ferroviária is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Ferroviaria: 23.95%

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviária - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.98%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
20.06.26	Anápolis - Itabaiana	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Itabaiana - Ituano	2:2 ✺
30.05.26	Itabaiana - Volta Redonda	0:1 ✺
24.05.26	Internacional de Limeira - Itabaiana	0:0 ✺
16.05.26	Figueirense - Itabaiana	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 LTLTW
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
21.06.26	Ferroviária - Internacional de Limeira	2:0 ✺
15.06.26	Ferroviária - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
24.05.26	Amazonas - Ferroviária	1:2 ✺
17.05.26	Ferroviária - Brusque	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 WWTWW

Upcoming Matches