Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 38

Date: 22 November 2024, Friday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, BandSports, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ituano		Amazonas

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.5	3.4	Watch
	1.93	3.3	3.6
	2	3.4	3.6	Watch
	2.17	3.3	3.73
	2.03	3.3	3.72	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.6
	1.96	3.48	3.73	Watch
	2	3.4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.22)	3.39 ↑ (3.3)	3.62 ↑ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
46.5%

Draw
27.6%

Amazonas
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

28.5%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

27.7%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Amazonas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ituano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amazonas than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	15.4%	15.4%

Ituano - Amazonas Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Amazonas will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ituano: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wesley Borges (G) 2. Marcinho 3. Erik 4. Luiz Gustavo 6. Richard 5. Rodrigo 8. Victor Silva 10. Neto Berola 11. Bruno Xavier 9. Alvaro 7. Vinicius Paiva	12. Marcao (G) 2. Tiago Cameta 13. Wellington 4. Fabiano (C) 21. Renan Castro 20. Para 7. Erick Varao 10. Rafael Tavares 22. Enio 9. Luan Silva 8. Gustavo Ermel
Substitutes
18. Aluisio 14. Claudinho 17. de Almeida J. V. X. 16. Guilherme Lazaroni 15. Guilherme Mariano 12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 13. Leo Duarte 23. Marcelo Mineiro 20. Miqueias 21. Pablo 19. Salatiel 30. Saulo (G)	18. Bruno Lopes 23. Cocote 31. Dentinho 17. Guilherme Xavier 1. Oliveira (G) 99. Sassa 16. Sidcley 15. Sousa 3. Thiago Spice

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Rodrigo (Own goal),
38', Tiago Cameta ↓, Sousa ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Neto Berola ↓, Marcelo Mineiro ↑,
67', Marcinho ↓, Leo Duarte ↑,
68', Victor Silva ↓, Aluisio ↑,
70', Gustavo Ermel ↓, Cocote ↑,
71', Rafael Tavares ↓, Sidcley ↑,
78', 🟨,
78', Alvaro ↓, Salatiel ↑,
78', Richard ↓, Guilherme Lazaroni ↑,
81', Salatiel 🟨,
82', Salatiel 🟥,
84', Aluisio 🟨,
89', Cocote ↓, Bruno Lopes ↑,
89', Luan Silva ↓, Guilherme Xavier ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 12).

Ituano is Relegated to Serie C (First stage )

Recent matches Ituano is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Amazonas is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ituano will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Ituano: Eduardo Diniz (Injury) Eduardo Person (Injury) Lipe (Injury) Ze Carlos (Injury) Ze Eduardo (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ituano won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
16.11.24	Vila Nova - Ituano	3:4 ✺
12.11.24	América Mineiro - Ituano	3:2 ✺
04.11.24	Ituano - CRB Maceio	1:2 ✺
28.10.24	Ituano - Santos	0:2 ✺
23.10.24	Botafogo SP - Ituano	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WLLLW
- Amazonas FC
Brazilian Serie B
16.11.24	Amazonas - Goiás	0:4 ✺
12.11.24	Guarani - Amazonas	0:0 ✺
05.11.24	Amazonas - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
29.10.24	Amazonas - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
25.10.24	Goiás - Amazonas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
03.08.24	Amazonas - Ituano	1:0

Ituano - Amazonas: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide