Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 37

Date: 16 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga (Goiânia)

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Vila Nova		Ituano

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.8	Watch
	1.98	3.25	3.5
	2	3.4	3.6
	2.02	3.46	3.91
	1.98	3.4	3.76	Watch
	2	3.4	3.5
	1.97	3.56	3.61	Watch
	2	3.4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.77)	3.41 ↓ (3.58)	3.66 ↓ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Nova
47%

Draw
27.5%

Ituano
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

26%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

24.6%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vila Nova's form might have worsened.

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	0%	10.5%

Vila Nova - Ituano Predictions

Users Predictions: Vila Nova will win (17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.67% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Denis Junior (G) 2. Rian 33. Dankler 4. Jemmes 14. Rhuan 5. Vitor Graziani 8. Du Fernandes 10. Luciano Naninho 29. Junior Todinho 11. Alesson (C) 7. Emerson Urso	12. Jefferson Paulino (C) 2. Marcinho 4. Luiz Gustavo 3. Claudinho 6. Guilherme Lazaroni 5. Bruno Xavier 7. Gabriel Falcao 10. Jose Aldo 8. Yann Rolim 11. Leozinho 9. Thonny Anderson
Substitutes
22. Apodi 21. Caique 15. Carlos Miguel 17. Gabriel Silva 13. Guilherme Lacerda 18. Gustavo Paje 19. Henrique Almeida 6. Higor 20. Joao Lucas 3. Vanderley 1. Vitor Hugo (G)	18. Aluisio 19. Alvaro 14. Erik 13. Leo Duarte 22. Marcelo Mineiro 20. Miqueias 17. Neto Berola 15. Pedro Libardoni 16. Richard 23. Salatiel 1. Saulo (G) 21. Vinicius Paiva
Coaches
Thiago Carvalho	Elias C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Jose Aldo ⚽, Gabriel Falcao (A),
18', 1 - 1, Alesson ⚽, Junior Todinho (A),
34', 2 - 1, Luciano Naninho ⚽, Alesson (A),
37', 2 - 2, Leozinho ⚽, Gabriel Falcao (A),
41', Emerson Urso ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Guilherme Lazaroni ↓, Richard ↑,
50', Alesson ↓, Henrique Almeida ↑,
52', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
53', Junior Todinho 🟨,
56', 3 - 2, Jemmes ⚽, Luciano Naninho (A),
58', Dankler 🟨,
58', Jemmes 🟨,
61', Gabriel Falcao ↓, Salatiel ↑,
61', Bruno Xavier ↓, Neto Berola ↑,
64', Rhuan 🟨,
65', Leozinho 🟨,
70', Thonny Anderson 🟨,
71', Junior Todinho ↓, Caique ↑,
71', Luciano Naninho ↓, Vanderley ↑,
72', Du Fernandes ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
75', Leozinho ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
76', Vitor Graziani 🟨,
80', Yann Rolim 🟨,
82', Claudinho ↓, Marcelo Mineiro ↑,
84', 3 - 3, Salatiel ⚽, Jose Aldo (A),
88', Jose Aldo 🟨,
90+8', Richard 🟨,
90+9', 3 - 4, Vinicius Paiva ⚽, Neto Berola (A),
90+10', Vinicius Paiva 🟨,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 8 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vila Nova won 2.

Recent matches Vila Nova is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ituano is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Vila Nova is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Vila Nova won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:7 (average 1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Vila Nova won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
11.11.24	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
02.11.24	Santos - Vila Nova	3:0 ✺
25.10.24	Avaí - Vila Nova	3:0 ✺
22.10.24	Vila Nova - Amazonas	1:0 ✺
19.10.24	Vila Nova - Coritiba	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLWL
- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
12.11.24	América Mineiro - Ituano	3:2 ✺
04.11.24	Ituano - CRB Maceio	1:2 ✺
28.10.24	Ituano - Santos	0:2 ✺
23.10.24	Botafogo SP - Ituano	0:1 ✺
19.10.24	Ituano - Ceará	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
26.07.24	Ituano - Vila Nova	0:0
08.09.23	Ituano - Vila Nova	1:2
24.05.23	Vila Nova - Ituano	1:0
05.08.22	Vila Nova - Ituano	1:1
23.04.22	Ituano - Vila Nova	3:1
Brazilian Serie C
17.01.21	Ituano - Vila Nova	0:1
14.12.20	Vila Nova - Ituano	1:2

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