Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 29

Date: 27 September 2024, Friday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)

Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Paysandu		Ituano

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.3	5.5	Watch
	1.7	3.4	4.75
	1.72	3.5	5
	1.74	3.5	5.68
	1.78	3.41	4.78	Watch
	1.73	3.5	4.75
	1.74	3.54	4.8	Watch
	1.72	3.5	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.82)	3.46 ↑ (3.37)	5.03 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
54.2%

Draw
27.1%

Ituano
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

27.6%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.6%

27.4%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Paysandu - Ituano Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Ituano will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 21. Bryan 3. Quintana Y. 23. Carlao 27. Lucas Maia 8. Joao Vieira 5. Netinho 20. Robinho 24. Borasi B. 11. Nicolas (C) 22. Jean Dias	12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 2. Marcinho 4. Guilherme Mariano 3. Claudinho (C) 6. Richard 5. Rodrigo 8. Miqueias 10. Jose Aldo 11. Bruno Xavier 9. Thonny Anderson 7. Vinicius Paiva
Substitutes
17. Biel Fonseca 10. Cazares 12. Diogo Silva (G) 18. Edinho 15. Garcia E. 14. Juninho 36. Kevyn 34. Leo Pereira 35. Luan Freitas 9. Paulinho Boia 30. Val Soares 99. Yony Gonzalez	19. Alvaro 14. Erik 18. Gabriel Falcao 16. Guilherme Lazaroni 21. Joao Carlos 13. Leo Duarte 22. Leozinho 15. Luiz Gustavo 17. Neto Berola 23. Salatiel 1. Saulo (G) 20. Yann Rolim
Coaches
Marcio Fernandes	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Joao Vieira ⚽, Jean Dias (A),
28', Quintana Y. 🟨,
34', Netinho 🟨,
35', Nicolas 🟨,
45+3', Quintana Y. ↓, Kevyn ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Richard ↓, Guilherme Lazaroni ↑,
46', Miqueias ↓, Alvaro ↑,
55', Netinho ↓, Luan Freitas ↑,
65', Borasi B. ↓, Paulinho Boia ↑,
65', Robinho ↓, Val Soares ↑,
66', Nicolas ↓, Yony Gonzalez ↑,
68', Guilherme Mariano 🟨,
70', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Leozinho ↑,
71', Carlao 🟨,
72', Jose Aldo 🟨,
77', Bruno Xavier ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
78', Luan Freitas 🟨,
87', Rodrigo ↓, Salatiel ↑,
90+2', Thonny Anderson 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Paysandu is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ituano is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Paysandu is a favorite.

There will not play in Ituano: Eduardo Diniz (Injury) Lipe (Injury) Madison (Injury) Salatiel (Injury) Ze Carlos (Injury) Ze Eduardo (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Paysandu won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Paysandu won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
23.09.24	Paysandu - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
18.09.24	América Mineiro - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
14.09.24	Paysandu - Guarani	2:1 ✺
05.09.24	Paysandu - Amazonas	0:1 ✺
01.09.24	Goiás - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWLT
- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
21.09.24	Ituano - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
17.09.24	Avaí - Ituano	2:0 ✺
13.09.24	Ponte Preta - Ituano	1:4 ✺
07.09.24	Ituano - Mirassol	3:2 ✺
02.09.24	Sport Recife - Ituano	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
15.06.24	Ituano - Paysandu	3:5
Brazilian Serie C
23.10.21	Paysandu - Ituano	1:4
16.10.21	Ituano - Paysandu	3:1

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