Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 30

Date: 5 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ituano		Guarani

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.4
	2.2	3	3.5
	2.27	2.98	3.76
	2.23	2.95	3.6	Watch
	2.2	3	3.4
	2.19	3.1	3.5
	2.2	3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.3)	3 ↓ (3.05)	3.51 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
42.3%

Draw
31.1%

Guarani
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

29.9%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

29%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	71.4%	0%

Ituano - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 2. Marcinho 4. Guilherme Mariano 3. Claudinho 6. Guilherme Lazaroni 5. Rodrigo 8. Jose Aldo 11. Bruno Xavier 7. Neto Berola 9. Thonny Anderson 19. Alvaro	1. Pegorari (G) 28. Pacheco 23. Douglas Bacelar 13. Matheus Salustiano 6. Emerson 33. Gabriel Bispo 18. Matheus Bueno 10. Luan Dias 19. Joao Victor 99. Caio Dantas 77. Marlon Maranhao
Substitutes
14. Erik 22. Gabriel Falcao 21. Joao Carlos 13. Leo Duarte 17. Leozinho 15. Luiz Gustavo 18. Miqueias 16. Richard 20. Ruan Carlos 23. Salatiel 1. Saulo (G) 10. Yann Rolim	5. Anderson Leite 31. Douglas Borges (G) 11. Estevao 2. Heitor 17. Jefferson 39. Lohan 12. Lucas Adell 21. Lucas Araujo 7. Marcelinho 47. Pierre 20. Reinaldo 15. Rene
Coaches
Alberto Valentim	Aal A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', 1 - 0, Jose Aldo (Pen),
66', Alvaro ↓, Leozinho ↑,
67', Neto Berola ↓, Yann Rolim ↑,
73', Marlon Maranhao ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
74', Gabriel Bispo ↓, Anderson Leite ↑,
80', Rodrigo ↓, Luiz Gustavo ↑,
80', Joao Victor ↓, Lohan ↑,
85', Bruno Xavier ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
85', Thonny Anderson ↓, Salatiel ↑,
86', Jose Aldo 🟨,
89', Emerson ↓, Jefferson ↑,
89', Matheus Bueno ↓, Reinaldo ↑,
90+12', Leozinho 🟨,
90+12', Pegorari 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ituano won 0.

Recent matches Ituano is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Guarani is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ituano could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Ituano: Eduardo Diniz (Injury) Lipe (Injury) Ze Carlos (Injury) Ze Eduardo (Injury)

There will not play in Guarani: Airton (Injury) Luan Dias (Injury) Marlon Douglas (Injury)

There are questionable in Ituano: Madison (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Ituano won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:9 (average 1.6:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Ituano won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:5 (average 1.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
27.09.24	Paysandu - Ituano	1:0 ✺
21.09.24	Ituano - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
17.09.24	Avaí - Ituano	2:0 ✺
13.09.24	Ponte Preta - Ituano	1:4 ✺
07.09.24	Ituano - Mirassol	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LLLWW
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie B
30.09.24	Guarani - Avaí	0:0 ✺
24.09.24	Operário Ferroviario - Guarani	1:0 ✺
17.09.24	Guarani - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
14.09.24	Paysandu - Guarani	2:1 ✺
08.09.24	América Mineiro - Guarani	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
18.06.24	Guarani - Ituano	3:3
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
27.01.24	Ituano - Guarani	0:3
Brazilian Serie B
05.08.23	Ituano - Guarani	1:1
28.04.23	Guarani - Ituano	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.01.23	Guarani - Ituano	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
08.10.22	Ituano - Guarani	2:1
28.06.22	Guarani - Ituano	0:2

Ituano - Guarani: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide