Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 28

Date: 21 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Referee: Correia B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, BandSports, Canais Globo, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ituano		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3.4	Watch
	2.2	3	3.2
	2.3	3.1	3.25
	2.33	3.14	3.44
	2.3	3.02	3.35	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.2
	2.26	3.2	3.23	Watch
	2.26	3	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (3.01)	3.08 ↑ (3.03)	3.29 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
41.3%

Draw
30.3%

Coritiba
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

30.8%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

31.7%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ituano's performance.

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Coritiba might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ituano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Coritiba could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Ituano - Coritiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Coritiba will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ituano: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 2. Marcinho 4. Guilherme Mariano 3. Claudinho (C) 6. Richard 5. Rodrigo 8. Miqueias 10. Jose Aldo 11. Bruno Xavier 9. Thonny Anderson 7. Vinicius Paiva	72. Pedro Morisco (G) 16. Natanael 5. Mauricio Antonio 4. Benevenuto 26. Bruno Melo 8. Ze Gabriel 19. Gomez S. 27. Josue 98. Lucas Ronier 9. Junior Brumado 30. Robson (C)
Substitutes
19. Alvaro 20. Eduardo Person 14. Erik 23. Gabriel Falcao 16. Guilherme Lazaroni 21. Joao Carlos 13. Leo Duarte 22. Leozinho 15. Luiz Gustavo 17. Neto Berola 1. Saulo (G) 18. Yann Rolim	67. Benassi (G) 21. Brandao 7. Castillo E. 40. Everton Morelli 22. Figueiredo 43. Jhonny 18. Matheus Bianqui 10. Matheus Frizzo 6. Rodrigo Gelado 14. Thalisson 36. Vini Paulista 57. Wesley Pomba
Coaches
Alberto Valentim	Jorginho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', Miqueias ↓, Yann Rolim ↑,
64', Josue ↓, Matheus Frizzo ↑,
74', Robson ↓, Castillo E. ↑,
75', Lucas Ronier ↓, Figueiredo ↑,
76', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
76', Bruno Xavier ↓, Leozinho ↑,
82', 0 - 1, Matheus Frizzo ⚽,
85', Rodrigo ↓, Alvaro ↑,
85', Jose Aldo ↓, Eduardo Person ↑,
87', Gomez S. ↓, Everton Morelli ↑,
88', Ze Gabriel ↓, Vini Paulista ↑,
90+1', Claudinho 🟨,
90+3', Matheus Frizzo 🟨,
90+5', Mauricio Antonio 🟨,
90+6', Joao Carlos 🟨,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 11).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Ituano could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Ituano: Eduardo Diniz (Injury) Lipe (Injury) Madison (Injury) Salatiel (Injury) Ze Carlos (Injury) Ze Eduardo (Injury)

There are questionable in Ituano: Guilherme Lazaroni (Injury) Jefferson Paulino (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ituano won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
17.09.24	Avaí - Ituano	2:0 ✺
13.09.24	Ponte Preta - Ituano	1:4 ✺
07.09.24	Ituano - Mirassol	3:2 ✺
02.09.24	Sport Recife - Ituano	3:2 ✺
24.08.24	Ituano - Goiás	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 LWWLW
- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
18.09.24	Coritiba - Ceará	3:1 ✺
15.09.24	Operário Ferroviario - Coritiba	2:1 ✺
08.09.24	Coritiba - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2 ✺
03.09.24	Guarani - Coritiba	2:1 ✺
27.08.24	Coritiba - Avaí	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
07.06.24	Coritiba - Ituano	4:2

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