Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 13

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Santa Cruz Recife		Ituano

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	2.90	3.20
	2.15	2.92	3.3	Watch
	2.18	3.05	3.55
	2.2	3.03	3.51
	2.15	2.9	3.5
	2.13	2.92	3.46	Watch
	2.13	2.9	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 (2.16)	2.95 ↓ (3.05)	3.4 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
42.3%

Draw
30.9%

Ituano
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

29.6%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

28.6%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Santa Cruz Recife - Ituano Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Santa Cruz will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Ituano will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Gabriel Souza (G) 6. Alex Ruan 27. Edson Miranda 37. Everaldo 13. Matheus Vinicius 5. Pedro Favela 17. Ronald 2. Thiago Ennes 23. Tiago Marques 18. Vitinho 4. William Alves (C)	1. Saulo (G) 9. Gabriel Razera 5. Gabriel William 10. Guilherme Xavier (C) 3. Leo Coltro 2. Lucas Mota 4. Matheus Mancini 11. Neto Berola 8. Richard 7. Thassio 6. Tiaguinho
Substitutes
28. Eron 7. Fabinho 30. Jefferson Bahia 8. Leo Costa 21. Nilton 20. Patrick Allan 9. Quirino 19. Renato 11. Robinho 16. Rodrigues 12. Rokenedy (G) 26. Silva	17. Alason Carioca 19. Bruno Mezenga 14. Carlao 20. Felipe Muranga 16. Guilherme Dal Pian 21. Leo Passos 22. Lucas Stefanello 15. Martha 18. Nelsinho 12. Pantera J. (G) 13. Victor Reis
Coaches
Cristian Souza	de Freitas U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Edson Miranda 🟨,
38', Richard 🟨,
41', William Alves 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Neto Berola ↓, Alason Carioca ↑,
46', Tiago Marques ↓, Quirino ↑,
46', Thiago Ennes ↓, Renato ↑,
56', 1 - 0, Renato ⚽,
60', Vitinho ↓, Silva ↑,
65', Richard ↓, Leo Passos ↑,
65', Gabriel Razera ↓, Bruno Mezenga ↑,
69', Ronald ↓, Nilton ↑,
72', 🟨,
76', Gabriel William 🟨,
77', Guilherme Xavier ↓, Felipe Muranga ↑,
82', Everaldo ↓, Fabinho ↑,
82', Tiaguinho ↓, Guilherme Dal Pian ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Santa Cruz is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Santa Cruz won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Santa Cruz: 41.91%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie C
27.06.26	Paysandu - Santa Cruz Recife	1:3 ✺
20.06.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Ypiranga	0:1 ✺
14.06.26	Brusque - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
31.05.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
23.05.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WLWTT
- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
28.06.26	Ituano - Maranhão	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Ituano - Figueirense	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Itabaiana - Ituano	2:2 ✺
30.05.26	Caxias - Ituano	2:1 ✺
25.05.26	Ituano - Botafogo PB	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
03.01.21	Santa Cruz Recife - Ituano	1:1
26.12.20	Ituano - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2

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