Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 10

Date: 27 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Yamaha Stadium (Iwata)

Referee: Shimizu H. (Jpn)


	Júbilo Iwata		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2.3	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.35
	2.82	3.16	2.42	Watch
	3.33	3.23	2.4
	3.33	3.23	2.36
	3	3.2	2.2
	3.2	3.32	2.31	Watch
	3.05	3.2	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (2.61)	3.22 ↓ (3.28)	2.33 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Júbilo Iwata
30.2%

Draw
29.4%

Machida Zelvia
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

28.5%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

29.2%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Júbilo Iwata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Júbilo Iwata's form might have worsened.

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Júbilo Iwata, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Machida Zelvia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	37.5%	50%

Júbilo Iwata - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Iwata will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kawashima E. (G) 26. Nishikubo S. 3. Morioka R. 36. Ricardo Graca 4. Matsubara K. 14. Matsumoto M. 28. Kanuma N. 7. Uehara R. 37. Hirakawa R. 11. Germain R. 99. Matheus Peixoto	1. Tani K. (G) 33. Mochizuki H. 5. Dresevic I. 3. Shoji G. 26. Hayashi K. 99. Takahashi D. 16. Uno Z. 8. Sento K. 22. Fujimoto K. 10. Na Sang-Ho 90. Oh Se-Hun
Substitutes
13. Fujikawa K. 77. Fujiwara K. 31. Furukawa Y. 41. Ishida M. 16. Leo Gomes 5. Ogawa D. 20. Tsuboi Y. (G)	47. Araki S. 15. Duke M. 42. Fukui K. (G) 45. Shibato K. 6. Suzuki J. 39. Vasquez B. 41. Yasui T.
Coaches
Yokouchi A.	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, Matsubara K. ⚽,
49', Kanuma N. 🟨,
61', Mochizuki H. ↓, Suzuki J. ↑,
61', Takahashi D. ↓, Vasquez B. ↑,
68', Shoji G. 🟨,
69', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Duke M. ↑,
69', Sento K. ↓, Araki S. ↑,
70', 2 - 0, Germain R. (Pen),
76', Matsubara K. ↓, Ogawa D. ↑,
82', Matsumoto M. ↓, Fujikawa K. ↑,
84', Uno Z. ↓, Yasui T. ↑,
90+2', Hirakawa R. ↓, Ishida M. ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Iwata won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Iwata won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Iwata won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J1 League
20.04.24	Avispa Fukuoka - Júbilo Iwata	2:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
17.04.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Júbilo Iwata	1:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
13.04.24	Júbilo Iwata - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 ✺
07.04.24	Kyoto Sanga - Júbilo Iwata	0:3 ✺
03.04.24	Júbilo Iwata - Albirex Niigata	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 TLLWW
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
21.04.24	Tokyo - Machida Zelvia	1:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
17.04.24	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Machida Zelvia	1:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
13.04.24	Machida Zelvia - Vissel Kobe	1:2 ✺
07.04.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
03.04.24	Machida Zelvia - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
12.08.23	Machida Zelvia - Júbilo Iwata	2:1
12.04.23	Júbilo Iwata - Machida Zelvia	1:1
03.10.21	Machida Zelvia - Júbilo Iwata	1:2
06.03.21	Júbilo Iwata - Machida Zelvia	1:3
16.12.20	Júbilo Iwata - Machida Zelvia	3:2
19.08.20	Machida Zelvia - Júbilo Iwata	0:0

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