Match Info

J1 League - Round 17

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium (Kawasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Kawasaki Frontale		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.85	2.1	Watch
	2.87	3.4	2.3
	3.2	3.1	2.22	Watch
	3.46	3.28	2.31
	3.4	3.02	2.34	Watch
	3.2	3	2.2
	3.25	3.18	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (2.95)	3.12 ↓ (3.36)	2.25 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kawasaki Frontale
28.8%

Draw
29.8%

Machida Zelvia
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

27.6%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

26.2%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kawasaki Frontale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

Kawasaki Frontale - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Kawasaki (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kawasaki (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thebault-Yamaguchi L. (G) 29. Yamahara R. 5. Sasaki A. 28. Maruyama Y. 13. Miura S. 8. Tachibanada K. 6. Yamamoto Y. 17. Ito T. 14. Wakizaka Y. (C) 24. Miyagi T. 91. Romanic L.	1. Tani K. (G) 3. Shoji G. (C) 50. Okamura D. 5. Dresevic I. 88. Nakamura H. 16. Mae H. 18. Shimoda H. 34. Tokumura F. 27. Erik 10. Na Sang-Ho 99. Yengi T.
Substitutes
49. Brodersen S. (G) 32. Hayashi S. 38. Kanda S. 19. Kawahara S. 23. Marcinho 2. Matsunagane Y. 20. Mochiyama K. 34. Osa R. 22. Uremovic F.	9. Fujio S. 26. Hayashi K. 2. Imai T. 31. Lavi N. 11. Masuyama A. 13. Morita T. (G) 19. Nakayama Y. 8. Sento K. 23. Shirasaki R.
Coaches
Hasebe S.	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', Romanic L. 🟨,
40', 0 - 1, Yengi T. ⚽, Shimoda H. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Shoji G. ↓, Nakayama Y. ↑,
62', Yengi T. ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
62', Shimoda H. ↓, Lavi N. ↑,
65', Miyagi T. ↓, Marcinho ↑,
70', Erik ↓, Sento K. ↑,
72', Ito T. ↓, Osa R. ↑,
72', Tachibanada K. ↓, Kawahara S. ↑,
72', Romanic L. ↓, Mochiyama K. ↑,
82', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Hayashi K. ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Wakizaka Y. (Penalty Awarded),
90+7', Lavi N. 🟨,
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Dresevic I. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Wakizaka Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Nakayama Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Maruyama Y. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Fujio S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Yamamoto Y. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Tani K. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Sasaki A. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Lavi N. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Yamahara R. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Sento K. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Mochiyama K. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)).

Kawasaki has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Machida Zelvia is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kawasaki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Kawasaki: Ienaga A. (Calf Injury) Kobayashi Y. (Calf Injury) Konno K. (Calf Injury) Ozeki Y. (Inactive) Yamaichi S. (Illness)

There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Knee Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kawasaki won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 2.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Kawasaki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 2.5:2).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kawasaki Frontale: 6.04%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Machida	4	3	1	0	13:3	10	10
7	Kawasaki Frontale	4	1	3	0	8:6	2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Machida Zelvia - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 40.91%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kawasaki Frontale
Japan J1 League
10.05.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Kawasaki Frontale	1:0 ✺
06.05.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo Verdy	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Tokyo - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Kawasaki Frontale - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLLW
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
13.05.26	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo Verdy	1:0 penalties ✺
10.05.26	JEF United Chiba - Machida Zelvia	0:2 ✺
06.05.26	Machida Zelvia - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Kashima Antlers - Machida Zelvia	2:1 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Machida Zelvia	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
28.03.26	Machida Zelvia - Kawasaki Frontale	2:1 penalties
31.08.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Machida Zelvia	5:3
06.04.25	Machida Zelvia - Kawasaki Frontale	2:2
05.10.24	Machida Zelvia - Kawasaki Frontale	1:4
07.04.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Machida Zelvia	0:1

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