Match Info

J2 League - Round 21

Date: 28 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Yamaha Stadium (Iwata)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Júbilo Iwata		Vegalta Sendai

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.5	3.4	Watch
	2.25	3.1	2.75
				Watch
	2.09	3.56	3.56
				Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.9
	2.04	3.34	3.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.4)	3.32 ↓ (3.35)	3.2 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Júbilo Iwata
43.2%

Draw
27.9%

Vegalta Sendai
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

28.3%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

28.5%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Júbilo Iwata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Vegalta Sendai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vegalta Sendai than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	33.3%	22.2%

Júbilo Iwata - Vegalta Sendai Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Iwata will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Sendai will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Iwata: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Iwata (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Iwata (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Iwata (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kawashima E. (G) 8. Tameda H. 5. Ezaki T. 36. Ricardo Graca 4. Matsubara K. 6. Kaneko D. 7. Uehara R. 20. Sato R. 23. Croux J. 9. Watanabe R. 71. Masui K.	33. Hayashi A. (G) 3. Okuyama M. 44. Inoue S. 5. Sugata M. 39. Ishio R. 11. Goke Y. 6. Matsui R. 8. Takeda H. 27. Onaiwu G. 9. Eron 47. Araki S.
Substitutes
13. Abe K. (G) 38. Kawaguchi N. 33. Kawai T. 2. Kawasaki I. 11. Matheus Peixoto 3. Morioka R. 39. Sumi K. 50. Uemura H. 52. Van den Bergh J.	42. Ishii H. 10. Kamada H. 59. Kobayashi K. 25. Mase T. 19. Mateus Moraes 48. Nakada Y. 14. Sagara R. 2. Takada R. 21. Umeda R. (G)
Coaches
Hutchinson J.	Moriyama Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Eron 🟨,
28', Matsui R. 🟨,
28', Matsubara K. 🟨,
34', Takeda H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Onaiwu G. ↓, Mase T. ↑,
50', Croux J. 🟨,
59', Mase T. 🟨,
62', Sato R. ↓, Sumi K. ↑,
68', Matsui R. ↓, Kamada H. ↑,
68', Eron ↓, Kobayashi K. ↑,
69', Tameda H. 🟨,
71', Masui K. ↓, Kawasaki I. ↑,
71', Watanabe R. ↓, Matheus Peixoto ↑,
71', Ezaki T. ↓, Van den Bergh J. ↑,
80', Takeda H. ↓, Sagara R. ↑,
83', Okuyama M. ↓, Nakada Y. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 1, Kobayashi K. ⚽,
90+4', Kawashima E. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Iwata won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Iwata won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:17. (average 1.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Iwata won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:8. (average 1.9:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J2 League
21.06.25	JEF United Chiba - Júbilo Iwata	0:1 ✺
15.06.25	Júbilo Iwata - Ehime	4:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Júbilo Iwata - Sagamihara	1:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
08.06.25	Júbilo Iwata - Shonan Bellmare	1:0 ✺
04.06.25	Shonan Bellmare - Júbilo Iwata	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWLWL
- Vegalta Sendai
Japan J2 League
22.06.25	Vegalta Sendai - Ventforet Kofu	0:0 ✺
15.06.25	Montedio Yamagata - Vegalta Sendai	3:4 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Vegalta Sendai - Kataller Toyama	0:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
31.05.25	Vegalta Sendai - Consadole Sapporo	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	Iwaki - Vegalta Sendai	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
23.03.25	Vegalta Sendai - Júbilo Iwata	2:3
06.08.23	Júbilo Iwata - Vegalta Sendai	4:1
11.06.23	Vegalta Sendai - Júbilo Iwata	2:3
Japan J1 League
03.08.19	Vegalta Sendai - Júbilo Iwata	2:1
18.05.19	Júbilo Iwata - Vegalta Sendai	2:0
Japan Emperors Cup
24.10.18	Júbilo Iwata - Vegalta Sendai	1:2 penalties
Japan J1 League
05.08.18	Júbilo Iwata - Vegalta Sendai	3:2

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