Match Info

BRAZIL: Baiano - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Alberto Oliveira (Bahia)


	Jacuipense		Bahia

	1	X	2
	6.25	3.2	1.55
	8	3.95	1.42
	13.56	3.77	1.36
	9.63	3.41	1.45	Watch
	8	3.9	1.4
	8.65	3.97	1.43
	8	3.95	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.87 ↑ (6.6)	3.74 ↓ (3.95)	1.43 ↓ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jacuipense
10.5%

Draw
24.8%

Bahia
64.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14%

23.4%

62.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.3%

24.6%

65.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jacuipense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jacuipense than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Jacuipense - Bahia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marcelo (G) 17. Alex Cazumba 7. Cesinha 15. Everson 11. Flavinho 22. Hugo Moura 10. Matheus Firmino 14. Thiago 8. Vinicius Amaral 4. Weverton 21. William	22. Marcos Felipe (G) 13. Arias S. 8. Cauly 33. David Duarte 14. Erick 16. Erick Pulga 4. Kanu (C) 46. Luciano Juba 15. Michel Araujo 11. Rodrigo 12. Willian Jose
Substitutes
20. Alison Daniel 25. Borges 9. Caique 6. Guilherme Rend 23. Italo (G) 16. Jefferson Baiano 5. Mizael Junior 19. Nicomedes B. D. 13. Pereira G. 3. Railon 2. Vicente 18. Vicente	7. Ademir 19. Caio Alexandre 1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 10. Everton Ribeiro 2. Gilberto 25. Iago 37. Kayky 26. Nicolas Acevedo 21. Ramos S. 5. Rezende 9. Rodriguez L. 77. Tiago
Coaches
Ribeiro R.	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Rodrigo ⚽,
25', Hugo Moura 🟨,
27', 0 - 2, Arias S. ⚽,
45+10', Matheus Firmino 🟥,
45+12', Flavinho (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
58', Michel Araujo ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
58', Erick Pulga ↓, Ademir ↑,
68', 0 - 3, Cauly ⚽,
70', Luciano Juba ↓, Iago ↑,
70', Willian Jose ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
72', Marcos Felipe 🟨,
79', 0 - 4, Everton Ribeiro ⚽,
80', Cauly ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
85', 0 - 5, ⚽,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-1.

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Jacuipense won 1.

Jacuipense is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Bahia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bahia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Jacuipense have a series of guest games.

In this match Bahia is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Jacuipense won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 12:25 (average 0.8:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Jacuipense won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5:10 (average 0.6:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Jacuipense
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
01.03.25	Bahia - Jacuipense	1:2 ✺
22.02.25	Jequié - Jacuipense	1:2 ✺
19.02.25	Jacuipense - Porto SC	5:0 ✺
12.02.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jacuipense	1:1 ✺
05.02.25	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Jacuipense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.9 WWWTT
- EC Bahia
Copa Libertadores
06.03.25	Boston River - Bahia	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
01.03.25	Bahia - Jacuipense	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.02.25	Bahia - The Strongest	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
22.02.25	Bahia - Juazeirense	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.02.25	The Strongest - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
01.03.25	Bahia - Jacuipense	1:2
12.01.25	Jacuipense - Bahia	0:0
03.03.24	Bahia - Jacuipense	2:0
02.04.23	Bahia - Jacuipense	3:0
26.03.23	Jacuipense - Bahia	1:1
Copa do Brasil
01.03.23	Jacuipense - Bahia	1:4
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
15.01.23	Jacuipense - Bahia	0:1

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