Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Referee: Wattellier E. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
United-kingdom	Solidsport TV


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Silkeborg IF

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.5	2.9	Watch
	1.98	3.2	3.5
	2.28	3.45	2.88	Watch
	2.27	3.51	2.99
	2.17	3.66	2.99	Watch
				Watch
	2.3	3.63	3.02	Watch
	2.17	3.3	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.08)	3.46 ↑ (3.25)	3.06 ↓ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
42.5%

Draw
27%

Silkeborg IF
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

27.9%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

27.1%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Silkeborg IF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Silkeborg IF than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.1%	23.7%	5.3%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Silkeborg IF Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 27 - 73%). Silkeborg will win (votes: 2 - 5.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 21.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 58.7% – 87.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 6 - 60%). Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 3. Stojinovic D. 13. Vital B. 27. Wdowik B. 8. Drachal D. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 7. Pozo A. 80. Pietuszewski O. 9. Rallis D. 11. Imaz J.	1. Larsen N. (C) 36. Nielsen J. 40. Busch A. 19. Gammelby J. 18. Montano L. 20. Larsen M. 6. Mattsson P. 22. Al Hajj R. 17. McCowatt C. 10. Bakiz Y. 23. Adamsen T.
Substitutes
19. Cantero A. 31. Flach L. 25. Jackson A. 4. Kobayashi Y. 86. Mazurek B. 22. Piekutowski M. (G) 5. Polak C. 18. Prip L. 20. Villar Miki	8. Andersen J. 30. Andresen A. (G) 14. Berger S. 41. Boesen O. 33. Freundlich M. 4. Ganchas P. 16. Holm B. (G) 26. Oxenberg M. 2. Poulsen A. 9. Simmelhack A.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Nielsen K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
23', Wojtuszek N. 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Imaz J. ⚽, Pozo A. (A),
33', Wojtuszek N. ↓, Villar Miki ↑,
35', 2 - 0, Imaz J. ⚽, Drachal D. (A),
44', Romanczuk T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Al Hajj R. ↓, Boesen O. ↑,
46', Montano L. ↓, Poulsen A. ↑,
68', Bakiz Y. ↓, Berger S. ↑,
68', Mattsson P. ↓, Freundlich M. ↑,
69', Drachal D. ↓, Flach L. ↑,
69', Pietuszewski O. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
79', Adamsen T. ↓, Simmelhack A. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Berger S. ⚽,
90+2', Stojinovic D. ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
90+2', Rallis D. ↓, Mazurek B. ↑,
90+5', Freundlich M. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 2, Busch A. ⚽, Poulsen A. (A),

Preview

1st leg result: 1-0. 2nd leg.

Jagiellonia has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Silkeborg has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Jagiellonia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Jagiellonia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Jagiellonia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.08.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Cracovia	5:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Silkeborg IF - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:1 ✺
31.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Novi Pazar	3:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Widzew Łódź	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Novi Pazar - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWWW
- Silkeborg IF
Danish Superliga
10.08.25	Silkeborg IF - Nordsjælland	4:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Silkeborg IF - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:1 ✺
Danish Superliga
03.08.25	Randers FC - Silkeborg IF	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	KA Akureyri - Silkeborg IF	2:3 ET ✺
Danish Superliga
27.07.25	Silkeborg IF - Fredericia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Silkeborg IF - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:1

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