Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 34

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Referee: Myc W. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 7
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 4, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Zagłębie Lubin

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.33	6	Watch
	1.52	4.33	5.5
	1.43	4.65	6.1	Watch
	1.46	4.79	6.33
	1.52	4.65	5.69	Watch
	1.44	4.4	5.75
	1.44	4.55	6.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.69)	4.53 ↑ (3.88)	5.95 ↑ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
63.8%

Draw
20.6%

Zagłębie Lubin
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

24.5%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

23.9%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jagiellonia Białystok's performance.

Zagłębie Lubin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jagiellonia Białystok that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 4. Kobayashi Y. 23. Montoia G. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 86. Mazurek B. 7. Pozo A. 11. Imaz J. 77. Szmyt K. 10. Pululu A.	1. Buric J. (G) 31. Orlikowski I. 25. Nalepa M. 4. Michalski D. 16. Corluka J. 39. Kocaba F. 8. Dabrowski D. (C) 13. Grzybek M. 44. Regula M. 84. Ligocki J. 17. Szabo L.
Substitutes
14. Bazdar S. 66. Damasiewicz A. (G) 8. Drachal D. 31. Flach L. 72. Jozwiak K. 44. Konstantopoulos A. 85. Kozlowski E. 21. Lozano S. 19. Nahuel M. 9. Rallis D. 17. Sylla Y. 27. Wdowik B.	20. Dziewiatowski M. 12. Gikiewicz R. (G) 9. Kosidis M. 7. Kowalczyk S. 35. Lucic L. 6. Makowski T. 21. Marek S. 88. Mlinaric M. 18. Radwanski A. 19. Sypek J. 11. Wozniak A.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Ojrzynski L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Orlikowski I. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Pululu A. (Penalty Awarded),
39', Montoia G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Grzybek M. ↓, Lucic L. ↑,
46', Ligocki J. ↓, Radwanski A. ↑,
63', Montoia G. ↓, Wdowik B. ↑,
69', Radwanski A. 🟨,
72', Dabrowski D. ↓, Dziewiatowski M. ↑,
72', Orlikowski I. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
75', Regula M. (Penalty Awarded),
76', Vital B. ↓, Konstantopoulos A. ↑,
84', Corluka J. ↓, Kosidis M. ↑,
84', Imaz J. ↓, Kozlowski E. ↑,
84', Pozo A. ↓, Nahuel M. ↑,
84', Pululu A. ↓, Bazdar S. ↑,
90+3', Nalepa M. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 2.

Jagiellonia is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Zagłębie Lubin has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Jagiellonia is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Pelmard A. (Inactive) Piekutowski M. (Inactive) Stojinovic D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Hladun D. (Shoulder Injury) Lawniczak A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Jagiellonia: Pozo A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Zagłębie Lubin: Kolan J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:26. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Jagiellonia won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.1:1.6).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Jagiellonia: 3.94% Zaglebie: 1.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Zaglebie	10	4	3	3	12:13	-1	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	4	0	5	13:16	-3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.05.26	GKS Katowice - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2 ✺
13.05.26	Raków Częstochowa - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:2 ✺
09.05.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Pogoń Szczecin	3:2 ✺
24.04.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Górnik Zabrze	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Arka Gdynia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TWWLW
- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.05.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Pogoń Szczecin	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	Górnik Zabrze - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2 ✺
03.05.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Cracovia	0:0 ✺
24.04.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Legia Warsaw - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0
Club Friendly
11.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	0:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.04.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	1:3
19.10.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:3
20.04.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2
20.10.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	3:0
18.03.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	2:2

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