Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 16

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Referee: Myc W. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 360, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 2, Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Jagiellonia Białystok		GKS Katowice

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.75	4.33	Watch
	1.71	4.1	4.1
	1.72	3.8	4.15	Watch
	1.75	4.07	4.52
	1.78	4.03	4.2	Watch
	1.73	3.75	4.2
	1.75	3.87	4.47	Watch
	1.77	3.8	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.78)	3.9 ↓ (4.02)	4.27 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
54%

Draw
24.1%

GKS Katowice
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

23.5%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8%

24.2%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

GKS Katowice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for GKS Katowice than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	5.6%	16.7%

Jagiellonia Białystok - GKS Katowice Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 14 - 77.8%). GKS Katowice will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 58.6% – 97%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - GKS Katowice (3.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jagiellonia Białystok will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 11 - 91.7%). GKS Katowice (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 70. Pelmard A. 27. Wdowik B. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 86. Mazurek B. 7. Pozo A. 11. Imaz J. 72. Jozwiak K. 9. Rallis D.	12. Straczek R. (G) 2. Kuusk M. 4. Jedrych A. (C) 6. Klemenz L. 30. Czerwinski A. 22. Milewski S. 5. Bosch J. 8. Galan B. 11. Blad A. 27. Nowak B. 99. Zrelak A.
Substitutes
8. Drachal D. 31. Flach L. 25. Jackson A. 4. Kobayashi Y. 21. Lozano S. 22. Piekutowski M. (G) 80. Pietuszewski O. 5. Polak C. 18. Prip L. 10. Pululu A. 3. Stojinovic D. 17. Sylla Y.	28. Brod A. 21. Kokosinski J. 1. Kudla D. (G) 19. Lukasiak K. 14. Lukowski J. 15. Markovic E. 20. Rejczyk F. 16. Rogala G. 80. Shkurin I. 10. Wedrychowski M.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Gorak R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Pozo A. ⚽, Wdowik B. (A),
31', Romanczuk T. 🟨,
36', Milewski S. 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Romanczuk T. ⚽,
45+3', Wdowik B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Galan B. ↓, Jirka E. ↑,
46', Wdowiak M. ↓, Markovic E. ↑,
46', Milewski S. ↓, Rasak D. ↑,
60', Nahuel M. 🟨,
64', Nahuel M. ↓, Szmyt K. ↑,
68', Markovic E. 🟨,
79', Pululu A. ↓, Bazdar S. ↑,
79', Pozo A. ↓, Drachal D. ↑,
82', 2 - 1, Jirka E. ⚽, Kowalczyk M. (A),
82', Shkurin I. ↓, Kokosinski J. ↑,
86', Mazurek B. 🟨,
90+2', Vital B. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 14).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

GKS Katowice may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Jagiellonia is a strong favorite.

There will not play in GKS Katowice: Marzec M. (Inactive) Paluszek A. (Knee Injury) Wasielewski M. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Jagiellonia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Jagiellonia: 3.27% GKS Katowice: 1.64%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	GKS Katowice	8	4	0	4	16:13	3	12
10	Jagiellonia	8	4	0	4	12:13	-1	12

Last Results with these Odds

Jagiellonia Białystok - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 53.16%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Piast Gliwice	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:0 ✺
01.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Fiorentina - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:4 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LLTWT
- GKS Katowice
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.03.26	GKS Katowice - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Radomiak Radom - GKS Katowice	0:1 ✺
Polish Cup
03.03.26	GKS Katowice - Widzew Łódź	2:1 penalties ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.02.26	GKS Katowice - Górnik Zabrze	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Arka Gdynia - GKS Katowice	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
04.12.25	GKS Katowice - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.03.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - GKS Katowice	1:0
25.08.24	GKS Katowice - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:1
Polish Cup
31.10.18	GKS Katowice - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:1 ET

Upcoming Matches