Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 25

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Referee: Szczerbowicz M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Tubi TV


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Piast Gliwice

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.6	4.2	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.05
	1.86	3.65	4.46
	1.83	3.7	4.36	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.33
	1.76	3.62	4.38	Watch
	1.68	3.27	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.68)	3.55 ↑ (3.27)	4.34 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
52.4%

Draw
26.2%

Piast Gliwice
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

27.3%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.4%

28.9%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Piast Gliwice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Piast Gliwice than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Piast Gliwice Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Piast (3.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jagiellonia Białystok will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jagiellonia Białystok will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Piast (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 4. Kobayashi Y. 23. Montoia G. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 8. Drachal D. 27. Wdowik B. 11. Imaz J. 77. Szmyt K. 14. Bazdar S.	33. Szymanski K. (G) 55. Twumasi E. 5. Juande 29. Drapinski I. 36. Lewicki J. 98. Lokilo J. 20. Tomasiewicz G. 10. Dziczek P. (C) 80. Vallejo H. 63. Barkovskiy G. 7. Felix J.
Substitutes
66. Damasiewicz A. (G) 44. Konstantopoulos A. 85. Kozlowski E. 21. Lozano S. 86. Mazurek B. 19. Nahuel M. 70. Pelmard A. 7. Pozo A. 10. Pululu A. 17. Sylla Y. 80. Zalewski Z.	28. Borowski F. 6. Chrapek M. 4. Czerwinski J. 9. Dalmau A. 3. Fikaj E. 12. Grelich J. (G) 70. Katsantonis A. 31. Lesniak O. 90. Lima I. 22. Mokwa T. 11. Sanca L.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Mysliwiec D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Vallejo H. ⚽, Lokilo J. (A),
33', Drapinski I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Twumasi E. ↓, Borowski F. ↑,
46', Wdowik B. ↓, Nahuel M. ↑,
46', Wojtuszek N. ↓, Pozo A. ↑,
53', Juande 🟨,
55', Drachal D. ↓, Mazurek B. ↑,
55', Bazdar S. ↓, Pululu A. ↑,
59', Lokilo J. ↓, Lesniak O. ↑,
59', Felix J. ↓, Sanca L. ↑,
67', 0 - 2, Vallejo H. ⚽, Lesniak O. (A),
68', Lewicki J. 🟨,
72', Barkovskiy G. ↓, Dalmau A. ↑,
74', Tomasiewicz G. ↓, Chrapek M. ↑,
79', Szmyt K. ↓, Zalewski Z. ↑,
82', 1 - 2, Imaz J. ⚽, Mazurek B. (A),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Piast may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Jagiellonia is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:22. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Jagiellonia won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1:1.1).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Jagiellonia: 3.94% Piast Gliwice: 1.31%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Piast Gliwice	9	4	1	4	16:15	1	13
10	Jagiellonia	9	4	0	5	13:16	-3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
06.03.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:0 ✺
01.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Fiorentina - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:4 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LTWTL
- Piast Gliwice
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.03.26	Piast Gliwice - Zagłębie Lubin	1:3 ✺
27.02.26	Cracovia - Piast Gliwice	2:3 ✺
20.02.26	Piast Gliwice - Motor Lublin	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Lech Poznań - Piast Gliwice	3:0 ✺
09.02.26	Piast Gliwice - Wisła Płock	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
13.09.25	Piast Gliwice - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1
06.04.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Piast Gliwice	1:1
29.09.24	Piast Gliwice - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:1
18.05.24	Piast Gliwice - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1
24.11.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Piast Gliwice	0:0
29.01.23	Piast Gliwice - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1
16.07.22	Jagiellonia Białystok - Piast Gliwice	2:0

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