Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jovanovic S. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	14:45	Disney+
Armenia	21:45	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 2, Q Football Asia, TOD
Australia	04:45	Paramount+, Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 6
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Sport 5
Canada	12:45	DAZN Canada
Chile	14:45	Disney+
China	01:45	ZhiBo8
Colombia	12:45	Disney+
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
France	18:45	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 9
Germany	18:45	RTL+
Greece	19:45	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong Kong	01:45	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	18:45	RTL+
Iceland	17:45	SÝN Sport 6, Viaplay
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	19:45	Sport 2
Italy	18:45	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Uno
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Mexico	11:45	Disney+
Mongolia	01:45	Premier Sports 5
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Peru	12:45	Disney+
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	17:45	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	01:45	beIN Sports 2
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	02:45	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime+
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 7
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Thailand	00:45	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, True ID, True Premier Football 5
Turkey	20:45	Tabii Spor 4
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	17:45	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 8, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	14:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	13:45	Disney+
Vietnam	00:45	On Golf, ON Plus
International	17:45	VIX App


	Fiorentina		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	5.5
	1.47	4.33	5.75
	1.52	4.45	5.4
	1.59	4.37	5.42
	1.56	4.39	5.6	Watch
	1.5	4	5.5
	1.55	4.49	6.21
	1.58	4	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.71)	4.32 ↑ (3.84)	5.63 ↑ (4.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
61.4%

Draw
21.8%

Jagiellonia Białystok
16.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.7%

24.8%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

25.3%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fiorentina's performance.

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78%	12.2%	9.8%

Fiorentina - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Jagiellonia (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Fiorentina (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +2 - Jagiellonia (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fiorentina will win (32 of 41 users predict this - 78.05%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.38% – 90.72%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Jagiellonia (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lezzerini L. (G) 29. Fortini N. 15. Comuzzo P. 5. Pongracic M. 21. Gosens R. (C) 80. Fabbian G. 8. Mandragora R. 27. Ndour C. 2. Dodo 91. Piccoli R. 22. Fazzini J.	50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 70. Pelmard A. 13. Vital B. 27. Wdowik B. 7. Pozo A. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 86. Mazurek B. 72. Jozwiak K. 10. Pululu A. 11. Imaz J.
Substitutes
62. Balbo L. 63. Bonanno P. 43. de Gea D. (G) 44. Fagioli N. 10. Gudmundsson A. 17. Harrison J. 20. Kean M. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 65. Parisi F. 6. Ranieri L. 19. Solomon M.	14. Bazdar S. 66. Damasiewicz A. (G) 8. Drachal D. 31. Flach L. 4. Kobayashi Y. 85. Kozlowski E. 9. Rallis D. 17. Sylla Y.
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', Comuzzo P. 🟨,
17', Jozwiak K. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Mazurek B. ⚽,
36', Jozwiak K. ↓, Drachal D. ↑,
45+3', 0 - 2, Mazurek B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lezzerini L. ↓, de Gea D. ↑,
46', Fortini N. ↓, Harrison J. ↑,
49', 0 - 3, Mazurek B. ⚽, Pululu A. (A),
62', Mandragora R. ↓, Fagioli N. ↑,
62', Fazzini J. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
66', Wojtuszek N. ↓, Bazdar S. ↑,
75', Bazdar S. 🟨,
77', Pongracic M. 🟨,
89', Piccoli R. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
90', Drachal D. ↓, Flach L. ↑,
Extra Time (2 - 1)
94', Pozo A. 🟨,
100', Solomon M. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
101', Dodo 🟨,
105+1', Romanczuk T. 🟨,
106', Mazurek B. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
107', 1 - 3, Fagioli N. ⚽,
110', Vital B. 🟨,
112', Vanoli P. 🟨,
114', 2 - 3, Romanczuk T. (Own goal), Kean M. (A),
117', Pozo A. ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
118', 2 - 4, Imaz J. ⚽, Pelmard A. (A),
120', Vital B. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 3-0. Second leg.

Fiorentina is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Jagiellonia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Fiorentina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fiorentina is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Brescianini M. (Inactive) Christensen O. (Inactive) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Konstantopoulos A. (Inactive) Lozano S. (Inactive) Montoia G. (Inactive) Nahuel M. (Inactive) Stojinovic D. (Injury) Szmyt K. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fiorentina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
23.02.26	Fiorentina - Pisa	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.02.26	Como - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Fiorentina - Torino	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWTL
- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.02.26	Cracovia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Motor Lublin	4:1 ✺
31.01.26	Widzew Łódź - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3

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