Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Jovanovic S. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fiorentina		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	5.5
	1.47	4.33	5.75
	1.52	4.45	5.4
	1.59	4.37	5.42
	1.56	4.39	5.6	Watch
	1.5	4	5.5
	1.55	4.49	6.21
	1.58	4	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.71)	4.32 ↑ (3.84)	5.63 ↑ (4.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
61.4%

Draw
21.8%

Jagiellonia Białystok
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

24.8%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

27.2%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fiorentina's performance.

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78%	12.2%	9.8%

Fiorentina - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Jagiellonia (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Fiorentina (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +2 - Jagiellonia (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fiorentina will win (32 of 41 users predict this - 78.05%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.38% – 90.72%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Jagiellonia (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lezzerini L. (G) 29. Fortini N. 15. Comuzzo P. 5. Pongracic M. 21. Gosens R. (C) 80. Fabbian G. 8. Mandragora R. 27. Ndour C. 2. Dodo 91. Piccoli R. 22. Fazzini J.	50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 70. Pelmard A. 13. Vital B. 27. Wdowik B. 7. Pozo A. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 86. Mazurek B. 72. Jozwiak K. 10. Pululu A. 11. Imaz J.
Substitutes
62. Balbo L. 63. Bonanno P. 43. de Gea D. (G) 44. Fagioli N. 10. Gudmundsson A. 17. Harrison J. 20. Kean M. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 65. Parisi F. 6. Ranieri L. 19. Solomon M.	14. Bazdar S. 66. Damasiewicz A. (G) 8. Drachal D. 31. Flach L. 4. Kobayashi Y. 85. Kozlowski E. 9. Rallis D. 17. Sylla Y.
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', Comuzzo P. 🟨,
17', Jozwiak K. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Mazurek B. ⚽,
36', Jozwiak K. ↓, Drachal D. ↑,
45+3', 0 - 2, Mazurek B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lezzerini L. ↓, de Gea D. ↑,
46', Fortini N. ↓, Harrison J. ↑,
49', 0 - 3, Mazurek B. ⚽, Pululu A. (A),
62', Mandragora R. ↓, Fagioli N. ↑,
62', Fazzini J. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
66', Wojtuszek N. ↓, Bazdar S. ↑,
75', Bazdar S. 🟨,
77', Pongracic M. 🟨,
89', Piccoli R. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
90', Drachal D. ↓, Flach L. ↑,
Extra Time (2 - 1)
94', Pozo A. 🟨,
100', Solomon M. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
101', Dodo 🟨,
105+1', Romanczuk T. 🟨,
106', Mazurek B. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
107', 1 - 3, Fagioli N. ⚽,
110', Vital B. 🟨,
112', Vanoli P. 🟨,
114', 2 - 3, Romanczuk T. (Own goal), Kean M. (A),
117', Pozo A. ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
118', 2 - 4, Imaz J. ⚽, Pelmard A. (A),
120', Vital B. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 3-0. Second leg.

Fiorentina is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Jagiellonia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Fiorentina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fiorentina is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Brescianini M. (Inactive) Christensen O. (Inactive) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Konstantopoulos A. (Inactive) Lozano S. (Inactive) Montoia G. (Inactive) Nahuel M. (Inactive) Stojinovic D. (Injury) Szmyt K. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fiorentina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
23.02.26	Fiorentina - Pisa	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.02.26	Como - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Fiorentina - Torino	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWTL
- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.02.26	Cracovia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Motor Lublin	4:1 ✺
31.01.26	Widzew Łódź - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3

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