The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Jaiba Brava 49.7%
Draw 26%
Venados 24.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
51.9%
23.8%
24.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
51.9%
23.8%
24.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Jaiba Brava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)
The chances for Venados have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (+2.2%)
The ML Model estimate for Venados aligns with the current prediction.
Jaiba Brava - Venados Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Ruiz G. (C) 3. Pena R. 26. Manzanarez O. 4. Rios A. 2. Bocco L. 16. Martinez J. 5. Ochoa I. 10. Torres E. 11. Cruz C. 9. Ocejo Zazueta J. A. 7. Magana D.
23. Castellanos R. (G) 31. Dominguez I. 4. Grijalva A. 14. Montiel S. 22. Montelongo M. 16. Macias L. 18. Amador K. 11. Tejeda D. 10. Dominguez A. (C) 7. Reyes J. 29. Lora S.
Substitutes
27. Escalante E. 1. Garcia J. (G) 8. Gonzalez R. 21. Lopez F. 6. Lopez Gonzalez J. 33. Martinez S. 177. Mendez O. 17. Ramirez I. 18. Serna A. 20. Tovar J.
27. Benitez S. 20. Cruz J. 1. Gonzalez C. (G) 8. Kilani P. 9. Lazarte L. 13. Ochoa Brandon 34. Saucedo S. 6. Torres E. 30. Torres M.
Coaches
Ruiz M. A.
Castro N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (3 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ⚽, Torres E. (A),
7', Montiel S. 🟨,
11', 2 - 0, Cruz C. ⚽, Torres E. (A),
24', Manzanarez O. 🟨,
41', Martinez J. 🟨,
42', Macias L. 🟨,
45', 3 - 0, Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ⚽, Rios A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Magana D. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
46', Montelongo M. ↓, Saucedo S. ↑,
49', 4 - 0, Torres E. ⚽, Gonzalez R. (A),
51', Tejeda D. 🟨,
52', 4 - 1, Lora S. ⚽, Macias L. (A),
54', Dominguez A. 🟨,
56', Amador K. ↓, Ochoa Brandon ↑,
64', Macias L. ↓, Torres E. ↑,
64', Dominguez A. ↓, Kilani P. ↑,
65', Martinez J. ↓, Tovar J. ↑,
72', 4 - 2, Kilani P. ⚽, Dominguez I. (A),
73', 4 - 3, Grijalva A. ⚽, Reyes J. (A),
76', Bocco L. ↓, Martinez S. ↑,
78', Rios A. 🟨,
84', Montiel S. ↓, Cruz J. ↑,
84', Grijalva A. ↓, Lazarte L. ↑,
86', Rios A. ↓, Lopez Gonzalez J. ↑,
86', Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
90+3', Lazarte L. 🟨,
90+5', Dominguez I. 🟨,
Preview
This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jaiba Brava won 1.
Jaiba Brava has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
In recent matches, Venados has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Venados may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Jaiba Brava is the team to beat.
In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Jaiba Brava won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:12. (average 1.4:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Jaiba Brava won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:4. (average 1.5:0.5).
Mexico
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Ruiz G. (C) 
Cruz C. 
Reyes J. 
Lora S. 
Lazarte L. 
Castro N. 
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